Global trade recorded a notable upswing in 2025, driven largely by strong manufacturing activity, which expanded by 11 per cent, even as volatile commodity prices created uneven performance across sectors.

This is according to the latest Global Trade Update (April 2026), titled “Global Trade Growth Continues, but Fragility Rises,” released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

The report highlights a year in which industrial goods, particularly machinery, became the main driver of global trade expansion.

It also points to diverging trends across commodities, with gains in some areas offset by weakness in energy-related trade.

UNCTAD data shows that manufacturing was the strongest-performing segment of global trade in 2025, while commodity-linked sectors recorded mixed outcomes due to price fluctuations.

“Manufacturing recorded a strong year, expanding by around 11 per cent, driven by robust growth in machinery, including both electrical and non-electrical segments,” UNCTAD stated.

Agricultural trade also grew, supported by higher activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.

Rising global coffee prices contributed significantly to agricultural trade gains, although momentum slowed toward the end of the year.

Trade in natural resources declined overall, weighed down by weaker energy prices, though precious metals helped support segments within the base metals trade.

UNCTAD said commodity price volatility played a key role in shaping global trade patterns during the period.

The report further noted that trade growth is expected to slow considerably in 2026, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflationary pressures and rising trade costs, with only a few sectors expected to see trade expansion.

UNCTAD stated further that global trade growth rose by roughly 2 per cent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).

“Both goods and services contributed, with goods up 1.7 per cent and services nearly 3 per cent,” the organisation stated.

While global trade remained broadly positive, Nigeria’s trade performance showed contrasting trends, particularly in manufactured exports and oil revenues.

Nigeria’s manufactured goods exports fell to N423.43 billion in Q4 2025.

This represents a 14.32 per cent year-on-year decline and a 56.73 per cent drop from the previous quarter.

Total merchandise trade stood at N36.21 trillion in Q4 2025, down from N39.77 trillion in Q3 2025.

The country recorded a trade surplus of N1.71 trillion, significantly lower than the N6.691 trillion surplus in the previous quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the decline largely to reduced export volumes, particularly in the oil sector.

Crude oil remains Nigeria’s dominant export but continues to face global price volatility.

Weak manufacturing capacity, high production costs and foreign exchange constraints continue to limit export competitiveness.

Non-oil sectors such as agriculture and services have provided some support but are not yet strong enough to offset oil-related declines.