Melvin Onwubuke
Nigeria’s trade with African countries has yet to reach pre-COVID-19 levels despite implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in 2021.
Nigeria’s trade with other African countries shows a slow recovery, according to the latest foreign trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Although there has been an upward trend from the pandemic slump, the trade volumes have yet to eclipse the pre-COVID-19 zenith, casting a shadow on the effectiveness of the AfCFTA agreement in catalysing a robust trade recovery.
A breakdown analysis shows that in 2019, the import trade figure was N1.11 trillion, while exports soared at N3.92 trillion, cumulating a total trade of N5.03 trillion, according to nairametrics.
According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, this period constitutes a significant mark for Nigeria’s trade on the continent.
However, a marked disruption was caused by the beginning of 2020 and subsequent global pandemics, resulting in an enormous drop in trade. The value of imports fell sharply to N406.88 billion, which is a far cry from the previous year.
Exports, which have been less affected, fell to N2.37 trillion and the total trade dropped to N2.78 trillion, indicating a retreat in economic interaction and disruption of supply chains on the continent.
The following year, 2021 was marked by the start of a recovery; imports rose to N551.31 billion, while exports also recovered slightly to N2.41 trillion.
Total trade rose to N2.96 trillion, but with considerable ground yet to cover.
The rising trend continued in 2022 with imports reaching N738.26 billion and exports amounting to N2.66 trillion, increasing the overall value of trade by a total of N3.4 trillion. A gradual recovery of trade stability appeared to be on track.
The latest data from 2023 show growth with imports of N896.05 billion and exports amounting to N3.71 trillion, increasing the total trade by N4.61 trillion.
This growth, which is significant in that it matches the baseline of 2019, reveals a still incomplete recovery of about N420 billion.
An Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) report revealed that Africa’s contribution to global trade remains at less than 3%. The report noted that African nations still engage in more trade with countries outside the continent than with each other. The report further noted that although the agreement establishing the AfCFTA officially started on January 1, 2021, the anticipated improvements in trade between African countries have not materialised.
The Chairman of the Board of Directors and Advisory Board at the Africa Private Sector Summit, Professor Kingsley Moghalu, recently said that when fully implemented, the AfCFTA is expected to boost intra-African trade by 52%, lift 30 million people out of poverty, and increase the continent’s GDP by $450 billion by 2035.
The expected economic integration and creation of a unified market that AfCFTA envisions appears to be a work in progress.
