The International Monetary Fund says more than 20 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are at risk of severe food insecurity as surging global food prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, intensify economic strain.

In its latest regional outlook, IMF warned that the shock is eroding recent stabilisation gains across the region while further driving up inflation, debt pressures, and the cost of living.

“A 20 per cent increase in international food prices can push more than 20 million people into moderate or severe food insecurity across the region,” the IMF said.

The Bretton Woods institution also warned that about two million children under the age of five could face acute malnutrition due to worsening food affordability and supply shortages.

It noted that sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on a relatively strong economic footing, with growth estimated at around 4.5 percent in 2025, its fastest pace in a decade, supported by easing inflation and improved fiscal balances in several countries.

However, the IMF said this outlook has since deteriorated following the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up energy, food, and fertiliser prices while also disrupting trade flows and external financial inflows.

“Regional growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026, 0.3 percentage points lower than our prewar forecast,” the institution said.

Inflationary pressures are also expected to resurface, with median inflation projected to climb to 5.0 percent by the end of 2026, up from 3.4 percent in 2025, according to the IMF.

The increase is attributed to higher import costs and mounting exchange-rate pressures.

The Fund added that the impact of the shock will differ significantly across countries.

Oil-importing economies are likely to face sharper declines in their trade balances, while oil-exporting nations may see higher revenues but remain vulnerable to ongoing market volatility.

The IMF warned that “risk appetite has decreased, negatively affecting financing conditions,” noting that many countries still have limited financial buffers.

On debt levels, the Fund said vulnerabilities across the region remain high, with more than one-third of countries either already in debt distress or at high risk of it.

It further stated that fiscal deficits are “larger than what is required to stabilise debt” in 21 countries, raising fresh concerns about debt sustainability and the need for tighter fiscal adjustments.

The IMF also highlighted growing sovereign-bank linkages, particularly within the West African Economic and Monetary Union, where government debt accounts for a significant share of bank assets.

According to the Fund, heavier reliance on domestic borrowing has strengthened the sovereign, bank nexus, raising concerns that fiscal pressures could spill over into the broader financial sector.