Nigeria may lose 34% GDP to climate disaster – Analyst

Marcus Amudipe
Marcus Amudipe


With a median GDP impact of -20% by 2050 and -64% by 2100 under present climate policy, a study has been published by Christian Aid highlighting that the eight poorest countries, including Nigeria could face a bleak economic future.

Even if global warming is kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the African continent will suffer catastrophic economic effects from climate change, according to a research released by the analyst.

According to the analysis, eight countries would experience GDP losses of at least 25% by 2050 and 75% by 2100 under the current course of action. Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, and Nigeria are the eight countries in question.

By 2050 and 2100, it is projected that these countries’ economy will still be greater than they are today. This research demonstrates the severity of the damage that climate change has caused to their GDP in compared to a case in which it didn’t happen.

Even if nations limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5C as required by the Paris Agreement, African countries will have an average GDP decline of 14% by 2050 and 34% by 2100. This highlights the need for a robust loss and damage mechanism, even if countries are successful in keeping global warming below 1.5C.

The countries with the biggest predicted GDP losses are Sudan and Nigeria, which last year saw one of the worst rainy seasons in recent memory.

According to the Christian Aid assessment, if current climate policies are followed, Sudan’s GDP will fall by 32.4% by 2050 and 84.4% by 2100 compared to what it would be if there were no climate change. Even in a 1.5C scenario, Sudan can expect a GDP hit of -22.4% by 2050 and -51.6% by 2100.

Despite the report’s dismal economic predictions, Africa continues to be the continent that is least responsible for contributing to the climate problem, according to a news release from Christian Aid late last year. The top 20 countries with the worst impacts emit, on average, 0.43 tonnes of CO2 per person, according to the analysis. Comparatively, Australia produces 15.4 tonnes per person, the United States and Canada 14.2 tonnes, and Saudi Arabia 18.

“This analysis demonstrates the significant burden that climate change would place on Africa’s economic progress. African nations face many difficulties, and the climate catastrophe poses a serious danger to their ability to build their economies sustainably.

These figures, according to an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, Marina Andrijevic who participated to the study, are only a function of rising annual temperatures and not the results of catastrophic weather occurrences. Because extreme weather events alone resulted in enormous losses, it is possible that these figures are cautious because they could have an impact on both economic growth and the point at which African economies resume growth.

The adoption of resilient agriculture and a coordinated strategy by relevant authorities and ministries, such as those of the Environment, Water Resources, and Agriculture and Rural Development, are lacking in Nigeria.

The impact of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural production may be underestimated, according to experts, who noted that farm yields are already declining and rural farmers are dealing with climate-related issues.

Nigeria currently has the highest rate of deforestation in the world, which supports the charcoal industry. Stakeholders worry that Nigeria may run out of forest resources over the next few decades.

The region, which produces more than 60% of the nation’s staple foods like rice, maize, wheat, sorghum, millet, and other grains, will be severely impacted by the slow-moving efforts to stop the fast desertification of the country’s northern margins.

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