Oil companies in Nigeria exported about 80 per cent of the country’s crude oil production in the first quarter of 2026 despite rising demand from domestic refineries.
Latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that out of the 139.93 million barrels of crude oil produced in the first three months of the year, only 28.5 million barrels, representing 20.1 per cent, were supplied to local refineries, including the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery.
This means that 111.43 million barrels of crude oil, representing nearly 80 per cent of total production, was exported despite the country’s expanding domestic refining capacity.
The development occurred despite the Commission allocating 61.9 million barrels for local refining under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) framework, while producers collectively offered to supply 68.7 million barrels during the quarter.
According to the NUPRC, oil companies produced 50.45 million barrels in January, but only 9.2 million barrels, or 18.2 per cent, was supplied to local refineries.
In February, total crude oil production stood at 41.93 million barrels, while domestic refiners received 9.1 million barrels, representing about 22 per cent of total output.
Similarly, in March, crude oil production rose to 47.93 million barrels, but only 10.1 million barrels, or 21 per cent, was delivered to local refineries, leaving 37.83 million barrels for export.
A breakdown of the DCSO performance showed that in January, the Commission allocated 22.6 million barrels to domestic refiners following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers. Producers exceeded the target by offering 25.3 million barrels, 11.9 per cent above the allocation, but actual supply to local refineries stood at only 9.2 million barrels.
In February, the Commission allocated 20.5 million barrels for domestic refining, while producers offered 19.8 million barrels, falling short of the target by 700,000 barrels. Actual deliveries remained low at 9.1 million barrels.
In March, DCSO allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered 23.6 million barrels, exceeding the target by 4.8 million barrels or 25.5 per cent. However, actual supply improved only marginally to 10.1 million barrels.
The Commission attributed the persistent gap between crude volumes offered and actual deliveries mainly to pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners.
According to the NUPRC, the current supply arrangement operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which continues to influence transaction outcomes and supply performance.
“However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter (Q1) 2026,” the Commission stated.
Industry data showed that the Dangote Refinery increasingly relied on imported crude oil in 2025 due to inadequate domestic supply, importing millions of barrels from the United States, Brazil, Angola and other countries to sustain operations. The refinery was estimated to have imported over 200 million barrels of crude during the year amid challenges in securing sufficient local feedstock despite the DCSO framework.
Despite the shortfalls, the regulator reaffirmed its commitment to achieving the Federal Government’s energy sufficiency objectives through the effective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
