Nigeria is expected to retain its position as Africa’s third-largest economy in 2026, with a projected gross domestic product of $386.67bn, according to the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
The ranking places Nigeria behind South Africa and Egypt, marking a significant shift from its former position as Africa’s largest economy.
Years of currency depreciation have reduced the dollar value of Nigeria’s economic output, despite growth in domestic production and its status as one of the continent’s largest consumer markets.
The IMF projects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026, faster than South Africa’s.
However, persistent poverty, high business costs and infrastructure deficits continue to hamper the country’s economic progress.
According to the IMF’s latest projections, South Africa ranks first with a GDP of $489.08bn, followed by Egypt at $442.89bn and Nigeria at $386.67bn.
Nigeria’s projected economic output is approximately $102.41bn below South Africa’s and $56.22bn less than Egypt’s.
Nigeria dominated Africa’s economic rankings for years, particularly after a 2014 GDP rebasing exercise significantly increased the estimated size of its economy.
However, successive rounds of naira depreciation have reduced Nigeria’s GDP value in US dollar terms, allowing South Africa and Egypt to overtake it in the continental rankings.
