Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol continued throughout 2025, as oil marketers spent N8.96 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit imports from January to December, despite growing investments in local refining capacity.

An analysis of the latest foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday revealed that petrol, classified as “Motor spirit ordinary,” remained one of the country’s most imported commodities all year, highlighting persistent supply shortfalls in the downstream sector.

The NBS reported that petrol import costs totalled N8.96 trillion in 2025, marking a decline of N6.46 trillion or about 41.9 per cent from the N15.42 trillion recorded in 2024.

However, the 2025 figure was still N1.45 trillion or roughly 19.3 per cent higher than the N7.51 trillion spent in 2023, the year the current administration removed fuel subsidies.

This development follows an exclusive report by The PUNCH that domestic refineries imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025, exposing a deepening paradox in the oil sector and continued preference for imports.

The high fuel import bill persisted even as expectations grew for reduced reliance on foreign supplies after major investments in local refining.

The trend continued despite the start of operations, gradual production increases, and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, as well as state-owned refineries and various modular plants.

Data recently published by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed total petrol consumption reached 18.97 billion litres in 2025.

Of this volume, 11.85 billion litres, representing 62.47 per cent, came through imports.

Domestic refineries supplied about 7.54 billion litres, accounting for 37.53 per cent of total consumption.

The NBS data on import values indicated a fluctuating but sustained pattern for petrol.

Expenditure rose by N0.62 trillion, or about 35.2 per cent, from N1.76 trillion in the first quarter to N2.38 trillion in the second quarter.

It then dropped sharply by N1.09 trillion, or roughly 45.8 per cent, to N1.29 trillion in the third quarter.

Imports rebounded strongly in the fourth quarter, surging by N2.25 trillion, or about 174.4 per cent, to N3.54 trillion, the highest quarterly spending of the year.

The fourth-quarter spike represented nearly 40 per cent of the annual total, reflecting ongoing supply pressures and seasonal demand variations.

The statistics agency did not provide a monthly breakdown of import values.

Petrol ranked as the second most imported product in the first quarter at N1.76 trillion and was also the second highest import from African countries, with N89.18 billion largely from Togo within the ECOWAS sub-region.

In the second quarter, petrol became Nigeria’s top imported product at N2.38 trillion, leading imports across African, West African, and ECOWAS trade routes, where imports totalled N208.76 billion.

The trend changed in the third quarter, when import value fell to N1.29 trillion, making petrol the third most imported product globally during that period.

No imports were recorded from African or ECOWAS countries in the third quarter, suggesting a shift to other international suppliers.

In the fourth quarter, petrol imports surged to N3.54 trillion, reclaiming its position as the most imported commodity.

Within Africa, it ranked second at N84.69 billion, with Togo again prominent among regional suppliers.

Petrol imports from Brazil were valued at N221.15 billion in the fourth quarter, while the Netherlands became one of Nigeria’s largest suppliers with shipments worth N1.22 trillion in the same period.

Petrol’s share of total trade showed a fluctuating but rising pattern, accounting for 11.42 per cent in the first quarter, rising to 15.54 per cent in the second quarter, dropping to 7.98 per cent in the third quarter, and rebounding to 20.52 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Nigeria sourced petrol from a diverse group of countries, including the Netherlands, the United States, Belgium, Brazil, and Togo, underscoring the global nature of its fuel supply chain.

Despite the operational launch of the Dangote Refinery and ongoing rehabilitation of state-owned refineries, dependence on imports remains firmly entrenched.

Over the past five years, Nigeria’s petrol import bill has risen steadily.

In 2020, the country spent N2.01 trillion on fuel imports, more than doubling to N4.56 trillion in 2021.

By 2022, the figure rose to N7.71 trillion before dipping slightly to N7.51 trillion in 2023.

In 2024, fuel import expenditure reached an all-time high of N15.42 trillion, the largest petrol import bill in Nigeria’s history.

The figures point to a structural mismatch between refining capacity and actual output, with feedstock constraints, logistics issues, and market dynamics limiting performance despite improved installed capacity.

Energy analysts warn that sustained import reliance, even with increased refining capacity, raises serious concerns about energy security, foreign exchange pressures, and the long-term viability of the downstream market.

The Managing Partner at Energy Consulting Practice, Kelvin Emmanuel, accused the Presidency of retaining tight control over licensing decisions in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, describing it as a violation of the Petroleum Industry Act.

Speaking in a telephone interview on Thursday, Emmanuel said, “The State House has refused to hand off its control in dictating to the authority who gets a licence or not, and has ignored calls consistently to comply with Sections 317, and 7 to 11 of the PIA.”

He further raised concerns over crude supply challenges facing the Dangote Refinery, noting that the facility was still heavily reliant on imports despite its scale.

“Dangote is currently importing about 10 million barrels out of the 18 million barrels he processes monthly. The one fortunate part of this crisis is that Lagos sits on the Atlantic Basin, so he can easily ship in crude from Houston or Brazil,” he said.

Emmanuel criticised the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude initiative, arguing that structural issues within the oil market were undermining its effectiveness.

“The government keeps touting the naira-for-crude initiative, when in reality it’s either the NNPC is not giving him crude because most of it is locked in forwards that have been pre-sold, or commercial operators are routing their feedstock at extra commissions outside the fiscal oil price,” he stated.

He added that Nigeria must take deliberate steps to safeguard domestic refining by establishing a national buffer stock.

“The Nigerian Government needs to develop a strategic petroleum reserve that is codified through an Act of Parliament, to serve domestic refiners,” Emmanuel said.

The continued reliance on foreign petrol supplies highlights the challenges in Nigeria’s energy transition, as the country struggles to align its upstream resources with downstream capacity.

As Africa’s largest oil producer, the persistent paradox of importing most of its refined fuel needs continues to characterise Nigeria’s petroleum sector, a situation policymakers insist must be urgently addressed to achieve genuine energy independence.