The World Bank has projected a 60 per cent surge in global urea prices in 2026, raising concerns over fertilizer affordability, food inflation, and agricultural productivity in developing economies.
This was disclosed in the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which warns that tightening supply conditions, rising energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions could push urea prices to some of their highest levels in decades.
In Nigeria, urea is a very common type of nitrogen-based fertilizer.
The development signals growing risks for food security and farm profitability, particularly in import-dependent economies, as higher input costs ripple through agricultural value chains.
The World Bank projects that urea prices could exceed $700 per metric tonne under adverse conditions.
“Urea prices are projected to rise by nearly 60 percent in 2026 (y/y), with market conditions expected to remain tight for much of this year before declining by about 25 percent in 2027 as exports from the Middle East recover and natural gas prices moderate.”
“If such risks materialize, average urea prices in 2026 could exceed the 2022 average of $700/mt—the second-highest level in real terms after 1974.”
Global fertilizer prices are projected to increase by over 31 per cent in 2026.
Fertilizer affordability is expected to fall to its weakest level since 2022.
Natural gas accounts for 80–90 per cent of ammonia production costs, making energy prices a key driver.
The report added that supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are tightening global fertilizer supply chains.
The World Bank attributes the expected surge in urea prices to a combination of structural and geopolitical factors, particularly the rising cost of natural gas and ongoing shipping disruptions.
The Middle East conflict has constrained exports of both energy and fertilizer inputs, intensifying supply shortages.
Shipping bottlenecks and logistics constraints are increasing delivery costs and market volatility.
Export restrictions by major producing countries could further tighten global supply.
Higher fertilizer costs may reduce usage by farmers, potentially affecting crop yields.
The World Bank noted that prolonged disruptions or escalation in geopolitical tensions could push prices beyond the $700 per metric tonne threshold, marking one of the highest real price levels since the 1970s.
The projected rise in urea prices could have significant implications for food inflation, agricultural productivity, and economic stability in developing economies.
For Nigeria, while local producers such as large-scale fertilizer plants may benefit from higher global prices, farmers could face increased production costs, potentially worsening food inflation.
In April, Nairametrics reported that the Dangote Group is targeting at least $40 billion in investments to fund a five-year plan to expand its fertilizer and oil refining operations.
The initiative comes amid global supply disruptions stemming from the Persian Gulf conflict, underlining the need for local production to reduce Africa’s dependence on imports.
In 2025, some farmers in the Federal Capital Territory raised concerns over the rising costs of fertilizers and agro-chemicals in Nigeria.
