The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has slightly lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, citing rising economic uncertainties triggered by recent United States trade actions.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC revised its 2025 demand growth estimate down to 1.3 million barrels per day, a 100,000 bpd drop from the earlier forecast of 1.4 million bpd. This marks a 150,000 bpd decline compared to last month’s figures.
The adjustment follows a turbulent period in global trade, largely attributed to sweeping tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Though the measures—including those targeting Nigerian exports—have been temporarily suspended for 90 days, they have already taken a toll on global markets, fueling inflation, dampening consumer confidence, and disrupting manufacturing and trade flows.
Oil markets have responded to the uncertainty. The price of OPEC’s basket of twelve crude oils fell to $66.25 a barrel on Monday, down from $70.85 the previous Friday, according to data from the OPEC Secretariat.
In tandem with the demand revision, OPEC also lowered its global economic growth projections. The group now expects the world economy to grow by 3.0% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025—down from earlier forecasts of 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the report noted.
Despite the downward revisions, OPEC remains more optimistic than other industry observers. The International Energy Agency, for instance, has projected that global oil demand will peak this decade due to the global shift toward renewable energy. The IEA is set to update its outlook on Tuesday.
Following the release of the OPEC report, Brent crude prices held steady near $66 per barrel, buoyed slightly by the temporary U.S. tariff reprieve. Still, oil prices have dropped over 10% this month.
On the supply side, OPEC+—a coalition of OPEC members and allies—saw a modest decline in output in March. Crude production dipped by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, driven by cuts in Nigeria and Iraq. However, Kazakhstan increased its output by 37,000 bpd to 1.852 million bpd, surpassing its quota of 1.468 million bpd. The country’s energy ministry admitted the breach but pledged to comply moving forward.
The developments come in the wake of an April 3 virtual meeting involving eight key OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE. The group agreed to a combined production increase of 411,000 bpd for May, aggregating planned increments over three months. However, officials signaled that these increases could be paused or reversed if market conditions worsen.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet again on May 5 to assess the market and set production levels for June.
