Key members of OPEC+ are planning to continue a series of gradual oil quota increases over the coming months, with the aim of fully restoring a previously halted layer of production—at least on paper—by the end of September.

This is according to a report by Bloomberg on Thursday.

Bloomberg reported that the group has already agreed to reinstate about two-thirds of a 1.65 million barrels per day output cut implemented in 2023 and is expected to proceed with additional quota increases in three further monthly tranches.

However, actual production gains remain constrained as the ongoing Iran-related conflict continues to disrupt exports from key Middle Eastern supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has continued to provide limited, largely symbolic supply increases despite geopolitical tensions, even as global oil markets face tight supply and elevated prices.

According to delegates who spoke to Bloomberg, OPEC+ intends to proceed with its phased quota restoration plan, even if actual output adjustments remain limited by operational and geopolitical constraints.

The group plans to fully restore the remaining portion of the 1.65 million barrels per day cuts by September.

Three additional monthly quota increases are expected as part of the phased return of supply.

Recent agreed increases remain largely “theoretical” due to production disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

The next OPEC+ policy meeting is scheduled for June 7, where July production levels will be reviewed.

The delegates noted that while quotas are being adjusted upward, several member countries are unable to meet revised targets due to supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints.

Before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, eight key OPEC+ members had begun gradually restoring production that was previously curtailed to manage a global oil glut.

The group had initially cut 1.65 million barrels per day in 2023 as part of efforts to stabilise prices.

The United Arab Emirates recently exited OPEC, reducing the effective scale of the original production cut agreement.

Despite the UAE’s departure, remaining members approved a modest increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June during their May 3 meeting.

The next review will determine production policy for July and beyond.

The war between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran, which escalated earlier in the year, has significantly disrupted supply flows.

Several producers in the Middle East have reduced output due to security risks and constrained export routes.

Saudi Arabia’s production reportedly fell to about 6.3 million barrels per day in April, the lowest level since 1990.

Kuwait’s output has dropped to roughly a quarter of pre-war levels.

Iraq and the UAE have also experienced substantial production declines.

Despite these disruptions, OPEC+ continues to refine its long-term production framework, including a review of members’ maximum production capacities, which is expected to guide quota setting into 2027.

Recent developments point to a fragile and evolving global oil supply environment, with production volatility and geopolitical risk shaping near-term decisions.

OPEC countries currently account for roughly 40% of global crude oil production, though this share has been declining over time.

The group previously announced a planned production quota increase of 206,000 bpd for May 2026, aimed at offsetting supply disruptions linked to ongoing conflict.