Nigeria earned an average of N55.5tn from crude oil sales in 2025, according to an analysis of official production figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and crude price data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

This 2025 figure represents an increase compared to the N50.88tn earned in 2024.

NUPRC data show that Nigeria produced a total of 530.41 million barrels of crude oil from January to December 2025. Output fluctuated during the year due to outages, operational disruptions, and gradual recovery in some producing fields.

The N55.5tn revenue was calculated by multiplying the 530.41 million barrels by the average crude oil price of $72.08 per barrel in 2025, then converting the result at an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar.

Production started strongly in January at 47.70 million barrels, before dropping to 41.02 million barrels in February. It recovered modestly to 43.42 million barrels in March and rose to 44.57 million barrels in April. Output stayed relatively stable through the second quarter, reaching 45.04 million barrels in May and 45.16 million barrels in June.

In the third quarter, output climbed to 46.73 million barrels in July, but dipped to 44.47 million barrels in August and further to 41.69 million barrels in September, marking one of the year’s lowest levels. Production rebounded in the final quarter to 43.44 million barrels in October, 43.08 million barrels in November, and 44.08 million barrels in December, per NUPRC data.

Although output stayed below Nigeria’s OPEC quota for most of the year, elevated crude oil prices supported revenue. CBN data indicate that Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at high levels early in the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light averaged $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices fell further to $69.07 in April and hit a low of $65.90 in May amid softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered to $73.50 in June and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before dropping to $66.15 in October, the latest month with available CBN data.

The simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices from CBN data gave an overall average of $72.08 per barrel for the period.

Applying this average price to the 530.41 million barrels produced yielded estimated gross crude oil revenue of approximately $38.23bn for 2025. At N1,450 to the dollar, this equated to about N55.5tn in crude oil earnings.

Industry analysts noted that this figure represents gross revenue, not actual government receipts, as it excludes production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recovery, oil theft, domestic crude supply obligations, or deferred liftings.

The analysis, based strictly on NUPRC production data and CBN price benchmarks, underscores the continued importance of output stability and price performance to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The N55.5tn amount reflects expected gross inflows generated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), international oil companies, and indigenous counterparts from crude sales in Nigeria.

In 2024, Nigeria produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil, generating approximately N50.88tn.

The Punch reported that the government-owned NNPCL serviced part of its $3bn forward-sale loan from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) with crude oil worth N991bn in 2024.

According to its 2024 financial statement, the repayment was linked to Project Gazelle, a forward crude oil supply agreement signed in 2023.

On August 17, 2023, The Punch reported that NNPC announced securing a $3.3bn emergency loan from Afreximbank to repay crude oil obligations. The loan aimed to support the Federal Government in stabilising Nigeria’s exchange rate.

Under the deal, NNPC committed to deliver 90,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Production Sharing Contract assets to back the funding facility. The 2023 financial statement indicated a drawdown of $2.25bn by December 31, 2023, with principal repayment starting in June 2024.

The funding carried an interest rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 6.5 per cent, with a 6 per cent margin and 0.5 per cent liquidity premium. By the end of 2024, the drawdown reached N4.9tn out of N5.1tn available, with N991bn worth of crude lifted in repayment, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8tn.

It could not be ascertained how much crude NNPC committed to repaying the outstanding N3.8tn in 2025.

Nigeria’s crude oil output dipped in December 2025 by 14,000 barrels per day, defying government efforts to increase production.

NUPRC data showed production fell from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December, achieving 95 per cent of the OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.

In 2025, Nigeria fell below its OPEC quota in nine months, meeting or slightly exceeding it only in January, June, and July. Average daily output started strong at 1.54 mbpd in January, 38,700 bpd above quota.

Output dipped below quota in February at 1.47 mbpd and weakened to 1.40 mbpd in March, one of the year’s widest shortfalls.

Production recovered modestly to 1.49 mbpd in April and 1.45 mbpd in May, remaining under quota until June at 1.51 mbpd, marginally exceeding it.

The country sustained 1.51 mbpd in July before slipping below in subsequent months.

Output declined in the third quarter to 1.43 mbpd in August and a yearly low of 1.39 mbpd in September, a deficit of over 110,000 bpd against OPEC target.

The final quarter saw subdued levels at 1.40 mbpd in October, 1.436 mbpd in November, and 1.422 mbpd in December.

The 2025 budget planned for at least 2.1 million barrels of oil (crude and condensate) per day, equating to 766.5 million barrels annually.

However, Nigeria produced only 599.64 million barrels in 2025 — 530.41 million barrels of crude and 69.23 million barrels of condensate — falling short by 166.86 million barrels.

Consequently, 2026 benchmarks adopted conservative assumptions due to global market uncertainties and domestic challenges like security and infrastructure constraints.

The 2026 revenue estimate uses 1.84 million barrels per day production, $64.85 per barrel benchmark price, and N1,400 to the dollar exchange rate.

Professor of economics Segun Ajibola said the crude production volume depends on factors often beyond immediate government control.

He explained that while the government can deploy resources for exploration, impact relies on technical cooperation by partners, joint ventures, global oil market dynamics, and environmental conditions.

Ajibola noted the complexity of Nigeria’s situation, with the NNPC enmeshed in controversies.

He highlighted unsettled host community issues, incessant pipeline vandalism, bunkerers causing about 30 per cent annual production loss, insecurity, high-level corruption, and others.

Ajibola submitted, “The government can be more decisive in addressing those problems that are right on its table to jack up production levels and meet planned targets. It does not appear that the government is doing enough at the moment.”

Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, remarked that oil production suffers from two major challenges—insecurity and policy—impacting upstream investment.

“On insecurity, the government has committed a lot of resources to protect pipelines and protect investors, and we can see some results, but we are not exactly where we should be. So, insecurity is still a kind of issue affecting oil production. The government continues to commit resources to tackle insecurity; it engaged private community-based security agencies to support the efforts of the military. Some progress has been made, but we are not yet where we expect to be,” he stressed.

Yusuf stressed the challenge of policy, adding that it took the country a long time to enact the Petroleum Industry Act, which still needs fine-tuning.

“So there is still the need to review the fiscal terms to encourage more investors to come because attracting capital to the oil sector is a very competitive thing. We are competing with many other oil-producing countries that are offering far better incentives to investors.

“The good news is that the President has committed to attracting those investors into the oil sector. The latest we saw in this regard was the meeting between the President and the Global Executive of Shell, where a promise of $20bn investment was made.

“So these are the kind of things that we expect to see. If we see more of these, we are likely to see more investments in oil production. So it’s a question of improving the fiscal terms, ensuring policy sustainability and stability, so that the problem of uncertainty or unpredictability will no longer be there. We should ensure we have security of investments and assets of investors in the Niger Delta,” Yusuf stressed.

Professor of energy Dayo Ayoade said the government knows what to do to ramp up production.

“If you want to fix production targets in the oil and gas industry, you have to ensure that you have good governance in the sector. Your sector must have a well-implemented programme. You must adhere to your own laws. And when you do this, you boost confidence among your investors, and then the investors would want to bring in their US dollars to invest in your country. If you don’t do this, then that could be a problem,” Ayoade said.

He noted lingering issues with oil theft, despite reduced public discussion.

Despite the N55.5tn earned in 2025, the professor said, “The facts are that there are reasons why we’re not producing enough. You have to give people the confidence to invest over the long term. What has happened to the fact that we’ve successfully ended oil theft because we don’t talk about it anymore? Was that the case? No more pipeline breaches?

“What about the cost of production in Nigeria? I think it’s one of the highest in the world. The cost of doing business in Nigeria is very high. You can’t compare it to any of our competitors. So, we still have a very long way to go. I think that if the government wants to achieve its 2026 oil targets, it must address the cost of doing business in the oil industry,” he added.

The professor commended recent government investment decisions.

“There are lots of good things also. I don’t want to be too negative. I think there are lots of good things the government has done that will take time to achieve its objectives. For instance, Shell’s continuing huge investments into Bonga will be highly profitable; that will increase our numbers, helping our indigenous producers open up marginal fields and get to production quickly.

“All those sitting on oil wells and sitting on licences should show the government their work programmes. If you don’t do your work programme effectively, we’ll remove the lock from you and give it to someone else. So, there are good things also. It’s not all bad news. But the government can do more to ensure that we meet our targets,” he said.