Global crude exports in 2024 dropped by 2%, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, due to weak demand growth and shifts in refinery and pipeline routes.
The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have continued to disrupt global crude flows, causing tanker shipments to be rerouted and creating regional divisions between suppliers and buyers.
Exports from the Middle East to Europe fell, while U.S. and South American oil shipments to Europe increased, according to Reuters.
Russian oil previously destined for Europe has been redirected to India and China.
The shifts in global crude exports have intensified as oil refineries in Europe closed, compounded by ongoing attacks on Red Sea shipping. Middle Eastern crude exports to Europe plunged by 22% in 2024, according to ship tracking data from researcher Kpler.
The shift in oil flows “is creating opportunistic alliances,” said Adi Imsirovic, an energy consultant and former oil trader, citing stronger ties between Russia and India, China and Iran that are reshaping oil trade.
“Oil is no longer flowing along the least cost curve, and the first consequence is tight shipping, which raises freight prices and eventually cuts into refining margins,” said Imsirovic.
The U.S., driven by surging shale production, has emerged as a major player in global oil trade, exporting 4 million barrels per day and capturing 9.5% of the market, ranking behind Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Trade routes have been further reshaped by the startup of Nigeria’s massive Dangote refinery, the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline to the west coast, declining oil output in Mexico, a temporary halt in Libyan exports, and increasing volumes from Guyana.
In 2025, suppliers will face declining fuel demand in major consuming markets like China.
Additionally, many countries are expected to shift toward greater natural gas use and renewable energy, further reducing reliance on oil.
“This kind of uncertainty and volatility is the new normal – 2019 was the last ‘normal’ year,” said Erik Broekhuizen, a marine research and consulting manager at ship brokering firm Poten & Partners.
China’s oil imports dropped by approximately 3% in 2024, driven by the rising adoption of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and increased use of liquefied natural gas in heavy trucking.
