Seven members of OPEC+ have agreed to raise oil production quotas once again, approving an output increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August 2026.

The decision was reached during a virtual meeting on Sunday involving key OPEC+ producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. In a statement, the group said the production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day would take effect in August 2026.

The move comes as Gulf producers continue to recover from disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, during which Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted oil exports from the region for several months.

OPEC data show that between the first quarter of 2026 and May, combined oil production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait—three of the seven countries increasing their output quotas—declined by about six million barrels per day.

However, on June 17, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at removing obstacles to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations continue.

Commenting on the production outlook, commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS told AFP that oil output remains below OPEC+ production targets for now.

Since the memorandum of understanding was signed, maritime traffic through the region has gradually recovered, easing concerns over supply disruptions and pushing oil prices down to levels seen before the Middle East conflict as markets anticipate a return to normal operations.

According to Bloomberg, citing a U.S. official, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may already have exceeded 10 million barrels per day.

However, Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, noted that much of the oil currently moving through the strait had been stored in tankers or storage facilities during the disruption. He added that restarting production that was previously shut in takes time.

“Assuming shipping continues to normalise, July will show an improvement with August probably being the month where the pickup accelerates,” he told AFP.

“For next year, everybody is anticipating a surplus,” Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, told AFP.

OPEC+, already weakened by the United Arab Emirates’ exit from the alliance in May, now faces the challenge of balancing falling oil prices with growing pressure from member states to increase production.

Iraq, in particular, has urged the group to raise production quotas to offset output losses suffered during the Middle East conflict, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said in late June.

However, Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said there is no immediate need to increase Iraq’s quota, noting that the country’s production remains well below pre-conflict levels.