The International Air Transport Association says the global aircraft supply chain is unlikely to fully stabilize before 2031–2034, citing years of delivery shortfalls and a record order backlog that continues to strain airlines.

In its latest global outlook, IATA noted that aircraft deliveries started recovering in late 2025 and production is expected to ramp up further in 2026, but supply will remain below demand for most of the decade.

The association said the industry is facing a deep structural gap between what airlines need and what manufacturers can produce, a mismatch driven by irreversible delivery losses accumulated over the past five years.

“The International Air Transport Association (IATA) updated its analysis of aerospace supply chain bottlenecks, noting that aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth in its just-released global outlook.

“While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines.

“The normalization of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031-2034 due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog,” the report read in part.

The order backlog has exceeded 17,000 aircraft, representing nearly 12 years of output at today’s production rates and far surpassing the traditional norm of about 30–40 per cent of the active fleet.

The report highlighted that delivery shortfalls have reached at least 5,300 aircraft, compelling airlines to extend the service life of older planes. The average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years and 12.8 years for passenger aircraft and nearly 20 years for cargo fleets. Despite this ageing, over 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, underscoring ongoing supply chain inefficiencies.

IATA said airlines are experiencing the effects throughout their operations, facing higher leasing and maintenance costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, and slower progress toward sustainability goals.

Passengers are also feeling the impact, as the tight balance between demand and available aircraft continues to drive fares higher in many markets.

The association noted that several factors are exacerbating delays, including ongoing engine shortages, extended aircraft certification timelines of up to five years, and supply pressures stemming from US–China trade tensions.