Nigeria’s broadband penetration declined for the second straight month in July, raising further doubts about the country’s ability to meet its 70 per cent penetration target by the end of 2025.

Latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission show that penetration fell to 48.01 per cent in July, down from 48.7 per cent in June and 48.8 per cent in May.

The number of broadband connections also dropped from 105.7 million in June to 104 million in July.

The decline comes despite repeated assurances from the NCC that the country remains on track to meet the National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020–2025), which set ambitious goals to deepen digital access.

Nigeria has already fallen behind on several milestones under the plan. Broadband penetration was projected to reach 50% by the end of 2023 but stood at only 43.71 per cent, rising marginally to 44.43 per cent at the close of 2024.

The plan also required that at least 70 per cent of telecom subscriptions be on 4G by 2023, but NCC data show only 50.85 per cent of the country’s 169.3 million active subscriptions were on 4G as of July 2025.

Another key benchmark—establishing a local smartphone assembly plant by 2023 to reduce entry-level device costs to around ₦18,000—has not materialized. Instead, the sharp devaluation of the naira has driven smartphone prices up, with the cheapest models now costing over ₦100,000.

Industry operators point to persistent structural challenges slowing broadband rollout.

Chief among them are the high Right of Way charges imposed by state governments, with only seven states having waived the fees.

NCC Executive Vice Chairman, Dr. Aminu Maida, recently warned that state-level policies and regulations are undermining federal efforts to expand access.

He stressed that states must align with national objectives if they are to benefit from the digital economy enabled by widespread broadband penetration.

With penetration now sliding, analysts say Nigeria risks missing its 70 per cent broadband target within the next four months unless decisive action is taken to address regulatory and cost barriers.