The effective tariff rate on United States imports is expected to remain close to 22%, with little likelihood of easing on duties tied to national security, according to a new report released Wednesday by JPMorgan Chase’s Center for Geopolitics.

The report indicates that tariffs are now viewed across the U.S. political spectrum as essential to strengthening the country’s industrial base—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense. As a result, the chances of a broad rollback, even after former President Donald Trump’s term, remain slim.

Contrary to market expectations that tariffs serve primarily as political leverage, the report presents a more entrenched shift in U.S. trade policy. Despite recent trade agreements sparking speculation of a softer stance from the White House, JPMorgan warns against assuming a return to the pre-2017 era of low tariffs and expansive free trade agreements.

“It would be a mistake to assume that the United States returns to an era of low tariffs and the pursuit of comprehensive free trade agreements,” the report noted. “Even if the next U.S. president supports a pre-2017 approach to trade policy, they would face a number of challenges to unwinding the Trump administration’s tariff structure.”

Over time, companies may adjust their global supply chains and investment strategies to reflect the permanence of the new tariff landscape, making any reversal increasingly unlikely.

JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics, launched in May, is led by Derek Chollet, a former official with experience in the Pentagon, State Department, White House, and Congress.

A separate analysis from JPMorgan Chase Institute in July estimated that the new universal tariffs announced on April 2 could cost midsize U.S. firms as much as $187.7 billion—over six times the burden imposed by earlier tariffs in place at the start of 2025.