The United Nations World Food Programme has projected that the number of people facing acute hunger globally could increase by as much as 45 million in 2026 if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues.

This escalation would deepen an already fragile food security crisis and push millions closer to starvation.

The report warns that the global population experiencing acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 and above, could climb sharply from the current figure of 318 million.

This increase would bring hunger levels close to the 349 million people recorded at the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, when a global cost-of-living crisis left vulnerable households unable to afford basic staples.

At the centre of the warning is the strong connection between energy and food systems. With oil prices projected to remain above $100 per barrel amid continued instability, rising fuel and fertiliser costs are expected to cascade through global food markets, the report stated.

Unlike 2022, when disruptions affected a major grain-producing region, the current crisis stems from a key global energy hub, yet the consequences could be just as severe.

In practical terms, families already struggling to get by may soon find themselves unable to afford even minimal meals, the report stated.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said WFP deputy executive director and chief operating officer, Carl Skau.

“Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge,” he added.

Import-dependent regions, particularly across sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, could face the steepest risks according to the United Nations.

WFP projections indicate that food insecurity could rise by 21 percent in West and Central Africa, 17 percent in East and Southern Africa, and 24 percent across Asia.

The report further stated that Sudan, which imports about 80 percent of its wheat, could face heightened exposure to price shocks, while drought-stricken Somalia had already started experiencing essential commodity prices jump by at least 20 percent.

Compounding the crisis is a severe funding shortfall facing humanitarian operations. Without urgent financial support, aid programmes are being scaled back, leaving millions without critical assistance at a time when global hunger risks are accelerating at an alarming pace, the report concluded.