United States investment bank J.P. Morgan has cast doubt on the most bullish forecasts for stablecoin growth, predicting on Thursday that the market will only reach $500 billion by 2028, far below the multi-trillion-dollar projections from other financial institutions.
The investment bank said expectations of explosive stablecoin adoption are “far too optimistic,” citing a lack of mainstream usage beyond the crypto trading ecosystem. Despite growing interest from fintech firms and banks, stablecoins remain largely confined to digital asset markets, according to the report.
“Payments adoption of stablecoins remains limited, making up just 6% of demand — around $15 billion,” the firm noted, adding that the majority of stablecoin use is still concentrated in crypto trading, decentralized finance, and as collateral in lending protocols. The current stablecoin market stands at approximately $250 billion.
The cautious outlook comes amid renewed attention on stablecoins following the U.S. Senate’s recent passage of the GENIUS Act, which lays out a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged crypto tokens. Analysts have said the legislation could bring long-awaited clarity to the market and potentially pave the way for broader adoption.
Standard Chartered previously projected the stablecoin market could hit $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein estimated in a June 30 report that supply might grow to $4 trillion over the next decade. But J.P. Morgan pushed back, saying the notion that stablecoins will soon replace traditional money for everyday use “is still far from reality.”
The bank highlighted key barriers to expansion, including limited real-world use cases, regulatory fragmentation, and muted international interest, as many countries focus instead on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or modernizing domestic payment systems.
In June, China’s central bank pledged to accelerate the global use of the digital yuan (e-CNY), while Ant Group, an affiliate of Alibaba, announced plans to apply for a license to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong via its international arm, Ant International, which operates Alipay.
Still, J.P. Morgan said that the success of China’s digital currency initiatives and the widespread use of Alipay and WeChat Pay are not necessarily blueprints for global stablecoin growth. “Neither the rapid expansion of e-CNY nor the dominance of Chinese mobile payment systems represent templates for stablecoin expansion in the future,” the bank stated.
