United Capital Plc analysts have forecasts that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will experience a further decline to 15.48 per cent in November 2025.
This projection represents a decrease from the 16.05 per cent rate recorded in October 2025.
Led by Ayo Akinwunmi, who is the Chief Economist of the company, the analysts said that the anticipated moderation is largely driven by a slight reduction in the prices of selected food items and Premium Motor Spirit.
In an inflation watch released yesterday, the analysts said: “The easing of inflationary pressures was evident in the energy sector during November 2025. The average price of Bonny Light crude oil saw a marginal decline of 1.41%, dropping to US$65.22 per barrel from $66.15 per barrel in October 2025.”
They also noted: “Crucially, the retail pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) also fell. Prices monitored across major filling stations dropped from ₦922 per litre at the close of October to ₦910 per litre in the first week of November. This average retail price moderated even further to approximately ₦900 per litre by month-end, following price reductions implemented by Dangote Refinery.”
Furthermore, they stated: “This drop in PMS prices helped to ease inflationary strains on sensitive sectors, notably transportation, hospitality, and food services, throughout the month.”
Regarding the food sector, the report stated: “In the food sector, price movements were mixed in November 2025 when compared to October 2025.
UCR’s survey of selected food items revealed price declines for certain commodities: the prices of Local Rice, Maize, and Garri fell by 27.6%, 21.72%, and 0.38%, respectively. However, the price of imported rice did rise by 2.4%. Meanwhile, the prices of Sorghum, Beans, and Yam remained broadly stable within the same range.”
Finally, the analysts considered exchange rate influences, noting: “Exchange rate dynamics played a role in influencing the cost of some food commodities. Although the Naira depreciated against the US Dollar by 1.84% on a month-on-month basis (closing at U$1/₦1,448.44 in November, up from $1/₦1,421.73 in October), the monthly average showed an appreciation.”
