Holiday bookings to Japan from major Asian markets have dropped sharply ahead of the summer travel season, driven by rumours of a looming earthquake predicted in a manga graphic novel.
Social media and viral posts have unsettled travelers, drawing renewed attention to manga artist Ryo Tatsuki’s forecast of a massive earthquake followed by tsunami waves in Japan.
Tatsuki, who some believe also predicted the 2011 earthquake, sets the date for this event in July 2025 in a graphic novel first published in 1999.
The manga was republished in 2021 with new content, sparking fresh speculation about the earthquake on social media. YouTube videos and Facebook posts warning against travel to Japan have since drawn millions of views.
Although scientists say earthquake timing cannot be precisely predicted, airline bookings from Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong have fallen since April.
Bookings from Hong Kong, in particular, have dropped by about 50% compared to last year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis of Forward Keys data.
Weekly arrival bookings from this Asian financial hub for late June to early July have plunged by as much as 83%.
Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines have scaled back some of their Japan routes this month, as officials urge the public to disregard the circulating rumours.
Miyagi Prefecture Governor Yoshihiro Murai recently warned that the speculation is starting to hurt tourism and called on people not to take the claims seriously.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency also reiterated on its website that there is no reliable scientific method for predicting the exact timing of earthquakes.
Japan lies within the Pacific Ring of Fire, a zone of intense tectonic activity, making it one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. Its most recent major quake occurred in 2011, triggering a deadly tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Despite the recent rumors, tourism to Japan remains strong. In April, the country welcomed a record 3.9 million foreign visitors, driven in part by the appeal of a weak yen.
Tatsuki’s graphic novel, The Future I Saw, is inspired by a dream in which a massive tsunami floods the Japanese archipelago and affects neighboring regions including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
The rumours have been further amplified by a well-known Hong Kong feng shui master with a large online following, who has advised against traveling to Japan.
Adding to the anxiety is a February report from a Japanese government earthquake task force, which has long tracked seismic activity along the Nankai Trough. The task force raised the estimated probability of a megaquake—potentially triggering 100-foot tsunami waves—occurring within the next 30 years to about 80%.
- For her part, Tatsuki—now retired and residing in Japan—said the surge in interest highlights a growing public awareness around disaster preparedness.
“I, myself, would like to take precautions such as stockpiling supplies in preparation for disasters and confirming evacuation routes when going out,” she said in a statement to Bloomberg. “I intend to remain vigilant on a daily basis as we approach July 2025.”
