S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Nigeria from “stable” to “positive,” while simultaneously affirming the country’s long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings at “B-/B.”
According to the international ratings body, this revision reflects increasing confidence in the trajectory of Nigeria’s external, fiscal, economic, and monetary indicators.
S&P stated that the positive outlook emphasizes recent improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, despite the persisting challenges of Nigeria’s low GDP per capita, a weak but gradually strengthening revenue base, and a high debt-service burden. The agency noted: “We think authorities are taking steps to improve the economy’s growth prospects and macroeconomic resilience.”
The rating agency observed that structural indicators have begun showing improvement following the strong momentum of reforms maintained since mid-2023. During that period, President Bola Tinubu introduced extensive measures, including the liberalization of the exchange rate and the removal of petrol subsidies, alongside tighter fiscal controls and increased efforts to boost national revenue. Furthermore, rising oil production has provided additional support to the improving outlook.
S&P now projects that Nigeria’s economy will expand by an average of 3.7 percent between 2025 and 2028, which marks an increase from its prior forecast of 3.2 percent. This improved projection is underpinned by higher oil output and better private sector sentiment. The agency also anticipates that inflation will ease consistently, reaching approximately 13 percent by 2028.
S&P cautioned that it could revert the outlook back to stable if Nigeria’s reform programme encounters failure, if debt-servicing pressures intensify, or if domestic markets demonstrate a reduced ability to absorb government borrowing. The agency also pointed out that confidence-sensitive capital outflows represent a downside risk.
Conversely, S&P suggested that an upgrade to Nigeria’s rating is possible within the next 12 months if the country’s economic performance surpasses expectations and its fiscal and external indicators show further strengthening.
