Nigeria’s revenue from solid minerals surged to almost three times its target in 2024, while dividends from natural gas, once a dependable source of government income, dropped to zero, raising concerns about transparency and asset management in Africa’s largest economy, according to findings by BusinessDay.
Data from the 2024 Federal Government Budget Performance Analysis released by BudgIT showed that revenue from solid minerals reached N11.33 trillion, far exceeding the budgeted N4.56 trillion and representing a performance rate of 248.46 per cent.
In sharp contrast, dividends from the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited, which historically contributed significantly to federal revenues, recorded zero inflow for the year, amounting to a zero per cent performance and triggering questions about governance and accountability.
The report attributed the failure of NLNG dividend payments to “rising vandalisation and attacks on gas pipelines,” but analysts argued that this explanation does not sufficiently account for the complete absence of returns, particularly given that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited holds equity in NLNG on behalf of the Federal Government.
“There needs to be some public explanation as to what is happening with the federal government’s due for the 2024 fiscal year,” the BudgIT report stated, while calling for an audit to clarify the situation.
Industry experts described the zero-dividend outcome as unprecedented and suspicious, especially against the backdrop of global energy market dynamics in 2024.
“This is unusual for the federal government,” the BudgIT report stated, noting that NLNG had historically delivered consistent returns and that “needs to be some public explanation as to what is happening with the federal government’s due for the 2024 fiscal year.”
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative has previously documented extensive revenue leakages in the oil and gas sector, with pipeline vandalism costing Nigeria billions of naira annually. However, analysts pointed out that NLNG’s offshore operations and LNG export infrastructure are generally less exposed to the crude oil pipeline attacks that affect onshore facilities.
The absence of NLNG dividends appeared even more striking when compared with the exceptional performance of the solid minerals sector. Most of the N11.33 trillion mining revenue was realised in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, suggesting either a rapid expansion in mineral exploitation or improvements in revenue collection mechanisms.
Vahyala Kwaga, research lead at BudgIT, described the NLNG situation as “a loud silence from a revenue stream that used to be fairly consistent.”
“An audit is required to provide critical answers,” Kwaga said. “The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 mandates disclosure, and the public deserves to know why NNPCL’s equity holding in NLNG produced no returns for the federal government.”
The report also highlighted broader structural revenue challenges facing the country. Despite improved performance in 2024, federal government non-oil revenue of N11.33 trillion did not exceed oil revenue, although it marked a significant improvement compared with previous years.
Companies Income Tax generated N2.6 trillion, exceeding its budget by 76.63 per cent, while Value Added Tax reached N868.86 billion, 69.42 per cent above target. Customs revenue also rose strongly to N1.36 trillion, representing 74.25 per cent above budget.
Oil revenue, however, remained dominant, with actual collections of N6.26 trillion, representing 76.57 per cent of the N8.18 trillion budgeted, a structure analysts said continues to expose Nigeria to global commodity price shocks.
Overall, the Federal Government recorded total revenue of N20.98 trillion in 2024, representing an 18.92 per cent shortfall from the N25.88 trillion budgeted, although it marked a 68.04 per cent increase from the N12.48 trillion realised in 2023.
“As generally impressive as this revenue performance is, there are still structural issues requiring focus from the government,” the report stated, again calling for an audit to explain the NLNG dividend failure.
Federal Government expenditure for the year stood at N34.49 trillion, with debt service consuming N12.63 trillion, exceeding non-debt recurrent spending by more than N3.8 trillion.
BudgIT, which tracks public spending in Nigeria, said the government must provide clarity on the NLNG dividend issue and ensure full disclosure in line with existing petroleum sector laws.
The report also criticised Nigeria’s budget implementation process, noting that the National Assembly’s decision to extend the 2024 capital expenditure deadline to December 2025 has resulted in what it described as a situation where “the federal government is, in very clear terms, implementing 2 budgets at once.”
BudgIT recommended that the government immediately audit NLNG dividends to determine the reasons for non-collection and develop strategies to restore the revenue stream, while also strengthening transparency and compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act.
