As Nigeria transitions from economic stabilisation to growth, PricewaterhouseCoopers has identified seven key themes that will influence whether 2026 becomes a period of sustained stability or marks the start of truly sustainable expansion.
Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators are showing positive alignment. Inflation slowed to 15.15 percent in December 2025, while the economy grew by 3.98 percent in the third quarter of 2025.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund project that Nigeria’s economy will experience its fastest growth in over a decade this year. Despite these positive figures, everyday citizens have yet to feel widespread relief from the growth.
“If you look at the direction around the output, it’s all positive, all the numbers sort of stack up on the positive side,” Olusegun Zaccheaus, chief economist and strategy at PwC said at the PwC and BusinessDay executive roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 budget and economic outlook on Thursday in Lagos.
Consumer dilemma
The overall economic outlook remains encouraging, but individual consumers continue to face challenges from reduced real earnings and persistently high prices. Zaccheaus highlighted a disconnect between investment trends and genuine consumer recovery.
“While there is an aspiration of consumer spending, the actual recovery is expected to be muted compared to the high-level economic data,” he said.
Uneven sectoral growth dynamics
PwC emphasised that economic growth will not occur evenly across all sectors, with energy and services standing out as exceptions.
“The sectors that will drive Nigeria include a resurgent oil and gas industry and a robust services sector. Specifically, oil and gas, because of improving investment and services, are expected to lead, while manufacturing will see better, but not dramatic, growth,” Zaccheaus said.
He added that uneven growth trends, structural bottlenecks, and evolving demand patterns are reshaping the prospects for various industries.
Global dynamics and geopolitics
Zaccheaus noted that the global landscape is moving toward greater fragmentation, creating risks for emerging markets like Nigeria.
He explained that the world has become multipolar, and businesses need to exercise caution as trade and economic tools can be weaponised, potentially making them unintended victims of international tensions.
Addressing fiscal sustainability and executing reforms
High debt levels, intensified efforts to boost revenue collection, and faster implementation of reforms will guide policy decisions.
Interest rates may remain elevated
Nigeria’s benchmark interest rates are likely to stay high even as inflation eases through much of 2025. Factors such as anchoring expectations, ongoing inflation risks, and external shocks continue to test price stability.
“Perhaps not by the 500 basis points some hope for, due to the need to manage liquidity,” he said.
A primary concern will be controlling money supply in the economy. PwC cautioned that money supply tends to increase ahead of elections, so central banks must handle liquidity carefully to avoid adverse impacts.
On the foreign exchange side, stability is anticipated to support the economy. PwC forecasts a steady FX environment that aids effective capital allocation, assuming policies remain consistent and well-planned.
Digital economy & AI: The shift toward execution
PwC indicated that 2026 will see innovation evolve from mere discussion to a formal economic foundation.
This shift gains strength from the digital economy’s contribution of approximately 19 percent to Nigeria’s GDP. The transition is becoming more structured, moving from planning to practical implementation.
Domestic security & social stability: The price of growth
Zaccheaus stated that security concerns extend beyond Nigeria alone, and preserving stability comes with costs. The PwC report details the economic implications of these costs.
He observed that ongoing insecurity and conflicts over land use threaten national unity. These issues extend beyond social concerns to become economic ones, as they impair food security and agricultural productivity, ultimately contributing to supply-side inflation.
