South African agricultural exporters are expecting higher United States tariffs to persist as the diplomatic rift between Pretoria and Washington continues. In response, these exporters are actively seeking alternative markets on the African continent.
Danie Dörfling, the head of business development at Moore Infinity, informed Business Times that liberalized trade policies could boost intra-Africa trade volumes by a massive 574% by 2030 compared to current levels, even without the African Continental Free Trade Agreement being fully in effect.
Dörfling elaborated on how this strategy mitigates risk: “One of the things that this mitigates is the potential worsening of US tariffs. And there’s a clear concern within the agricultural sector, from acute and immediate, to structural and long-term. And the evidence … is that the sector is preparing for structural worsening … because of the US tariffs.”
Dörfling’s remarks come shortly after South Africa hosted the first G20 Leaders Summit on the African continent. A protracted diplomatic rift with the US—characterized by discredited claims of a “white genocide” and the imposition of unilateral tariffs—saw U.S. President Donald Trump skip the major event.
Dörfling noted that the US has rolled back some categories of reciprocal tariffs for seasonal goods or goods that its domestic market cannot replace, such as citrus juices and macadamia nuts. However, this action has not resulted in a restoration of sector confidence.
He explained the current operating reality: “The tariff volatility is now sort of a baseline expectation. The sector experienced three tariff regimes in nine months, pre-April to November. So this unpredictability makes long-term investment in the US supply chain untenable … Capital is now essentially stranded because of the tariff volatility.”
Trade data from last year indicated that 16% of Africa’s total food trade was intercontinental—including staples such as sorghum, maize, beans, and meat. Estimates suggest this might account for 32% of total intra-Africa trade, according to Dörfling.
He provided growth statistics for the continent: “Intra-Africa trade grew by about 12.4% in 2024. That reached $220bn. So, within this aggregate, food and agriculture products represent a disproportionately large share of that growth … Nigeria’s agriculture sector will grow by about $5bn by 2043 … followed by Sudan, and then Kenya and Algeria.” He added that countries with existing processing capacity and strategic geographical positions are creating processing hubs which contract production from smaller deficit countries, creating economies of scale that drive productivity for continental-wide growth.
Dörfling also observed a recent shift in agriculture investment strategies by development finance institutions on the continent. This shift involves moving from financing individual farmers to actively targeting aggregators, large-scale trade groups, processors, and logistics firms that maintain a network of smallholder farmers. He highlighted the financial architecture supporting this change: “What the development finance institution have done of late has actively accelerated these blended finance structures and mobilisation of private capital. They have a nice flagship fund — the Dakar 2 compact frameworks — that represents a proposed $61bn envelope in blended finance directed at about 40 country compacts, and it’s focused on agricultural poles and agro-industrial zones.”
Speaking at a virtual roundtable of the South African Institute for International Affairs this week, Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined, suggested that if the G20 nations, especially the AU states, genuinely cared about multilateralism, they would boycott US G20 events that exclude South Africa.
