Nigeria is no longer Africa’s top importer of refined petroleum products, following increased output from the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, a new report reveals.

According to fresh data from energy consultancy CITAC, South Africa has now taken the lead as the continent’s largest fuel importer—marking a significant transformation in Africa’s downstream oil market.

The Dangote Refinery, which commenced large-scale production in early 2024, is already transforming fuel trade across sub-Saharan Africa and redefining regional energy dynamics.

Boasting a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day—the largest single-train refinery globally—its growing output is significantly cutting Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol.

According to new data released on Wednesday by energy consultancy CITAC, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025.

In comparison, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes during the same period, firmly establishing itself as Africa’s largest fuel importer.

“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC.

“Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries rose by 77.8 per cent year-on-year in 2024, jumping from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024. This leap was almost entirely driven by the Dangote plant.”

This development marks a major milestone for Nigeria, which has long faced the paradox of importing fuel despite being Africa’s leading crude oil producer.

The CITAC report also projects that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will drop to 6.4 million tonnes—less than half of South Africa’s estimated 15.5 million tonnes for the year.

“The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650 kb/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily ramping up throughput and streaming secondary units throughout the year. Output from the Dangote refinery has displaced the bulk of international clean products imports in West Africa,” the report explained.

The Dangote Refinery has rapidly emerged as a key source of petroleum product supply, ramping up to 550,000 barrels of refining capacity per day. As Nigeria’s fuel imports continue to decline, South Africa’s reliance on foreign refined products is growing steadily.

South Africa’s increasing dependence on imported fuels is largely due to a steep decline in its domestic refining capacity. A combination of industrial accidents, ageing infrastructure, and prolonged underinvestment has led to the shutdown of multiple refineries since 2020.

According to Transnet SOC Ltd, the state-owned logistics firm, imports now supply over 60% of the country’s fuel demand. The situation deteriorated further in 2022 when Sapref—South Africa’s largest refinery and a joint venture between Shell Plc and BP Plc—was taken offline.