Nigeria’s oil and gas industry deferred approximately 42.55 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in 2025, with the affected volumes estimated to be worth $2.97bn.
The production losses were largely attributed to pipeline failures, terminal disruptions, equipment breakdowns and maintenance activities, which continued to hamper output across the sector.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission disclosed this in its 2025 annual report, stating that an average of 116,563 barrels per day was deferred during the year.
The deferred volumes represent crude oil and condensate that operators were unable to produce as scheduled due to operational difficulties and infrastructure challenges.
Deferred production refers to crude oil that operators are unable to produce or evacuate as scheduled due to operational challenges, pipeline outages, maintenance, terminal constraints and other disruptions.
Although some of the deferred volumes may be recovered later, prolonged disruptions can affect immediate crude exports, reducing oil revenue and government earnings.
An analysis of the monthly figures showed that October recorded the highest average daily production deferment of 172,761 barrels, followed by March with 169,856 barrels and December with 169,786 barrels.
July recorded the lowest daily deferment at 25,780 barrels.
The October figure was 146,981 barrels per day, representing a 570.1 per cent increase over July’s level and highlighting the significant fluctuations in production disruptions during the year.
The estimated value of $2.97bn was derived by applying the monthly average prices of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude grade to the corresponding volumes of deferred production.
United Capital’s 2025 Economic Review and 2026 Outlook put the average price of Bonny Light crude at $70.88 per barrel in 2025, down from $82.40 in 2024, representing a 14 per cent decline.
The estimated $2.97bn represents the indicative gross market value of the deferred barrels rather than confirmed revenue losses incurred by the Federal Government or oil companies, as some of the affected production could be recovered later.
The NUPRC report identified pipeline outages, particularly along the Trans Niger Pipeline, Nembe Creek Trunk Line and Trans Forcados Pipeline, as the leading causes of production deferment during the year.
It stated, “The most prevalent reason for deferment during the year was outage of key pipelines (TNP, NCTL & TFP), technical and operational challenges such as planned maintenance, vessel/tanker loading delay at terminal leading to shut-in of wells also contributed greatly to deferment.”
The findings highlight how Nigeria’s efforts to boost crude oil production and maximise earnings from its petroleum resources continue to face challenges beyond oil theft and pipeline vandalism.
Production deferment occurs when oil companies are unable to produce or evacuate crude oil at scheduled rates due to operational and infrastructure problems affecting wells, production facilities, pipelines, storage terminals and export infrastructure.
Unlike oil theft, which involves the illegal appropriation of crude oil, production deferment refers to barrels that cannot be produced or evacuated as scheduled, resulting in delayed production or temporary shutdowns.
Although some of the affected volumes may be recovered later, prolonged disruptions can reduce immediate export volumes, foreign exchange inflows and government revenue.
In January, the industry recorded an average daily deferment of 76,002 barrels, with the affected production valued at approximately $190.37m, based on the average Bonny Light price of $80.80 per barrel.
The situation deteriorated in February, when average daily deferment rose to 134,793 barrels, representing a 77.4 per cent increase from January. The affected crude volumes were estimated to be worth approximately $290.99m.
