The decline in crude oil prices, combined with the reinstatement of the naira-for-crude swap for local refiners, could drive the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) down to around N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, according to oil marketers and industry analysts.

This projection follows another price cut by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has reduced its ex-depot price for PMS to N835 per litre—its second reduction in less than a week.

Industry stakeholders noted that the projected pump price of N800 per litre could be attainable if crude oil prices fall further to $50 per barrel and marketers reduce reliance on foreign exchange for product purchases. On Wednesday, Brent crude traded at approximately $65 per barrel, according to The Punch.

That same day, Dangote Petroleum Refinery further reduced its refined product prices, lowering the ex-depot price of petrol to N835 per litre, marking its second downward adjustment within a week.

The new price of N835 per litre represents a N30 reduction from the N865 implemented six days earlier, reflecting a 3.5% decrease, and a N45 drop from the N880 per litre sold the previous Wednesday.

This marks Dangote Refinery’s third downward price adjustment in six weeks. The development was confirmed through a pro forma invoice seen by our correspondent and verified on petroleumprice.ng.

In a statement signed by the Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, stated that the refinery reduced its gantry price to reaffirm its commitment to delivering high-quality petrol at affordable rates, with the aim of benefiting consumers nationwide.

The statement added that the new petrol price includes all statutory charges by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

According to the revised pricing document, PMS at the gantry will now sell for N835 per litre, inclusive of NMDPRA levies, while coastal sales remain suspended.

For diesel, the gantry price is set at $608, with an additional $70 surcharge, payable either in naira at N1,650/$ or directly in U.S. dollars.

The statement read, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery is pleased to announce a reduction in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, 16th April 2025. This marks the second price reduction within a week.”

“Key partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil, will offer petrol at N890 per litre, down from N920 in Lagos. In the South-West, the price will be N900 per litre, reduced from N930.

“In the North-West and North-Central, the price will be N910 per litre, lowered from N940. In the South-East, South-South, and North-East, the price will be N920 per litre, down from N950.”

Chiejina expressed optimism that the latest PMS price reduction would trigger a positive ripple effect across multiple sectors of the economy, offering much-needed relief to consumers and supporting broader economic growth.

He added, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery has consistently worked to reduce the prices of petrol and other refined petroleum products, ensuring the continued benefit of Nigerian consumers. For example, in February, the refinery reduced prices twice by N125. In addition, products such as diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas have also experienced significant price reductions due to the refinery’s sustained efforts.

“We anticipate that this latest reduction in PMS prices will generate a positive ripple effect throughout various sectors of the economy, providing much-needed relief to consumers and contributing to broader economic growth, particularly during the Easter season.

“Dangote Petroleum Refinery remains steadfast in its commitment to ensuring a steady supply of premium-quality petroleum products, with sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand, along with a surplus for export. This strategy is designed to support the stability of the domestic market while also contributing to the growth of Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.

“Furthermore, Dangote Petroleum Refinery calls on industry stakeholders, including marketers and distributors, to continue sourcing their products from the refinery, ensuring that the benefits of these price reductions are fully realised across the country.”