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OPEC+ supply increase plans crash oil prices globally

OPEC+ lacks capacity to raise oil prices, says expert

The global oil market is currently experiencing shock from an anticipated supply hike by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, leading to oil prices edging lower on Thursday for the fourth consecutive day.

Brent crude hit its lowest price since early June due to mounting concerns about oversupply in the market.

Three sources familiar with the talks disclosed that OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, which is triple the increase implemented for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share.

The market sentiment was further weighed down by predictions of an oil glut. Jorge Montepeque, Managing Director at Onyx Capital Group, noted that some banks, such as Macquarie, have already made predictions of a super glut in oil markets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical factors are adding complexity to the supply picture. The Group of Seven nations’ finance ministers announced on Wednesday that they will increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who continue to boost purchases of Russian oil.

Additionally, two officials told Reuters on Wednesday that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, confirming an earlier Wall Street Journal report.

The WSJ report suggested that this intelligence will make it easier for Ukraine to hit refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure, thereby depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil.

This threat of disruption has created a point of anxiety in the market, with Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, commenting: “There is some concern in the market again that Russian oil could get disrupted.”

However, Staunovo added that as long as actual supply disruptions do not occur, the impact on prices is likely to remain minor.