Nigeria’s crude oil output fell to 1.31 million barrels per day in February, as local refineries continued to struggle with insufficient domestic crude supplies to sustain operations.

The decline underscores Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC-approved production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with output dropping sharply in February 2026.

According to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, which compiles data directly from member countries, Nigeria produced 1.314 million barrels per day in February, down from 1.459 million barrels per day in January.

The figures indicate a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day, further widening Nigeria’s shortfall from its OPEC production allocation.

Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC production quota is hurting both its oil export revenues and domestic refineries, which are struggling due to a shortage of crude feedstock.

The official further explained, “As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to DRP, in the face of temporary availability constraints.”

The 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery had previously flagged constraints in domestic crude supply, receiving only five cargoes per month from NNPC instead of the 13 cargoes mandated under the naira-for-crude policy. This shortfall has forced the refinery to rely on imported crude purchased at international market prices.

“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria,” the refinery had stated.

The latest OPEC report showed that while Nigeria saw a slight uptick in production in January—rising from 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 to 1.459 million barrels per day—the recovery proved short-lived, with output falling sharply in February.

With the latest figures, Nigeria has continued its streak of missing the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota—a trend ongoing since August 2025. The country has now fallen short of the quota seven consecutive times, despite efforts to boost production.

Earlier data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also indicated that crude output weakened toward the end of 2025, falling from 1.436 million barrels per day in November to 1.422 million barrels per day in December, before registering a modest rebound in January.