Nigeria’s lingering power outages across homes and businesses are largely the result of insufficient gas supply to thermal power plants.

The Nigerian Independent System Operator disclosed on Friday.

The operator explained that the sustained decline in electricity generation stems from acute fuel shortages affecting the national grid.

In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations” shared on its official X handle, NISO said average available generation currently stands at about 4,300 megawatts, well below Nigeria’s installed capacity.

The disruptions began in early February after scheduled maintenance on critical gas infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy temporarily cut gas supply to several thermal plants, triggering a nationwide drop in electricity generation.

NISO said the drop in output is directly tied to acute gas constraints affecting thermal power stations, which make up the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity generation mix. It noted that current generation levels reflect a significant shortfall in daily gas supply to the plants.

“We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations.

“Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output.

“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output.

“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” NISO stated.

The operator added that dwindling gas supply has reduced the volume of electricity allocated to Distribution Companies, compelling them to embark on load shedding to maintain grid stability.

NISO also released operational figures underscoring the scale of the shortfall.

It said thermal plants require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas daily to run optimally, but as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at roughly 692.00 mmscf per day.

Required daily gas supply for optimal thermal generation: 1,629.75 mmscf
Actual supply as of February 23, 2026: 692.00 mmscf per day