Nigeria has recorded the sharpest decline in passport strength in Africa over the past 20 years, underscoring how limited visa liberalisation, tighter global mobility rules and weak reciprocal agreements have steadily reduced international travel access for Africa’s most populous country.

According to BusinessDay, an analysis of the Henley Passport Index for January 2026, released on Tuesday, shows that Nigeria’s passport has dropped 27 places over two decades, falling to 89th out of 199 countries from 62nd when the index was launched in 2006.

Globally, Nigeria recorded the second-largest long-term decline on the index, surpassed only by Bolivia, which fell 32 places over the same period.

The decline is particularly notable given Nigeria’s recent short-term improvement in the rankings.

From the January 2025 edition of the index, Nigeria climbed five places from 94th, indicating a modest recovery that has not been sufficient to offset two decades of relative underperformance.

Launched 20 years ago, the Henley Passport Index ranks passports based on the number of destinations their holders can access either visa-free or with visa-on-arrival, using exclusive Timatic data supplied by the International Air Transport Association.

While the upper end of the rankings has become increasingly congested, countries at the lower end have become more isolated, widening the global mobility gap.

According to Henley & Partners, Nigeria’s long-term decline reflects stagnation rather than an outright loss of travel access.

“Nigeria has seen a fall in its ranking over the last 20 years because it has only added nine destinations to its visa-free score over this time,” analysts at the London-based immigration investment consulting firm said in an email to BusinessDay.

“The main reason for the loss in ranking is that other passports have extended their visa-free access much more significantly. It is more a case of not keeping up than losing access.”

In 2006, the average passport worldwide allowed visa-free travel to 58 destinations.

By 2026, that global average had risen to 108 destinations, pushing countries that failed to expand access more rapidly further down the rankings.

“A record number of people are expected to travel in 2026, amplifying the economic and social benefits of mobility,” said Willie Walsh, director general at IATA.

“Yet for many nationalities, a passport alone is no longer enough. As governments tighten borders, policymakers must not overlook technologies such as digital ID and digital passports, which can enable both secure borders and seamless travel.”

The contrast between Nigeria and the world’s top-performing passports is stark.

The United Arab Emirates emerged as the strongest climber on the index over the past 20 years, adding 149 visa-free destinations and jumping 57 places to fifth position globally, with access to 184 destinations.

The UAE’s rise has been driven by sustained diplomatic engagement, aggressive visa liberalisation and a network of bilateral agreements.

Over the same period, passports at the top of the rankings added between 50 and nearly 150 destinations.

As consolidation intensifies at the upper end of the index, countries that fail to continuously expand visa-free access are increasingly overtaken.

Nigeria’s passport ranking has fluctuated over the years, reflecting broader diplomatic trends and changes in global mobility.

In the mid-2000s, Nigeria ranked in the low 60s but gradually slipped as visa restrictions tightened and reciprocal agreements stalled.

By 2021, Nigeria had fallen to an all-time low of 103rd, signalling severely constrained travel freedom.

The country then staged a partial recovery, ranking 98th in 2022 and 97th in 2023, before improving to 89th in the 2026 index.

Nigeria was not alone in its decline across Africa.

Sierra Leone, Mali and The Gambia recorded the second-largest declines on the continent over the 20-year period, each dropping 23 places to rank 74th, 82nd and 68th respectively.

Mauritania, Guinea and Liberia followed closely, each falling 21 places to 79th, 81st and 86th respectively.

Henley & Partners attributed some of the recent declines among African passports to the adoption of eVisa systems in countries such as Malawi, Mauritania, Somalia and Bolivia.

“Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Mali, Gambia, Guinea and Liberia all lost access to some of these destinations,” the firm said.

“More broadly, they are simultaneously losing access due to visa policy changes and not proactively working regionally or globally to secure additional visa-free access for their citizens.”

While no African country ranked among the biggest global climbers over the past 20 years, a group dominated by the UAE and countries in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe, Rwanda emerged as a notable exception over the past decade.

The East African country climbed 19 places to 70th, placing it among the top 10 global risers in the last 10 years.

Rwanda’s improvement reflects a deliberate national strategy anchored on tourism and visa openness.

“In just the past year, while many passports lost visa-free or VOA access to Somalia and Malawi, Rwanda gained or maintained access to both,” Henley & Partners said.

“Rwanda also implemented bilateral agreements with Liberia and Qatar, showing it works hard both regionally and globally to establish and maintain visa-free ties.”

Henley & Partners argued that Africa has significant untapped potential to strengthen passport power through greater regional openness, stronger visa systems and credible due diligence frameworks that support bilateral agreements.

“Ultimately, the data show that passport power is not driven by history or democratic status alone. Instead, it is shaped by a mix of stability, peace, openness, economic strength, sustained diplomacy and reciprocal mobility policies—areas where Nigeria and several of its peers have struggled to keep pace over the past two decades.”