BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has projected that Nigeria’s oil production is expected to record a modest uptick in 2026, to be buoyed by a combination of infrastructure improvements and incremental field output.
According to BusinessDay, this projection by BMI was titled “Rebound in domestic demand will drive Nigerian economy in 2026.”
The firm forecasts that total liquid hydrocarbons will average 1.73 million barrels per day next year, representing a 1.9% rise from the estimated 1.70mn b/d in 2025. This forecast also surpasses the country’s official OPEC production quota of 1.50mn b/d.
However, Nigeria has been struggling to meet its OPEC-assigned production quota, falling short for the third consecutive month, with the last time the country met its target being in July 2025.
Crude oil output rose only marginally in October 2025, increasing to 1.401 million barrels per day from the 1.39 million bpd recorded in September.
OPEC data shows that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, a decline from the 1.481 million bpd recorded in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1. These figures highlight Nigeria’s persistent challenges in sustaining a full production recovery despite fresh investments, renewed security efforts, and ongoing government interventions aimed at stabilising the upstream sector.
BMI attributes the anticipated increase in 2026 production to midstream infrastructure upgrades, ongoing debottlenecking efforts, and additional volumes coming from smaller oil fields.
The BMI report also highlights the significant positive impact of the Dangote Refinery. The report noted, “The Dangote refinery has significantly reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel through 2025 and improved foreign exchange liquidity. While we expect this to continue in 2026, any operational delays or disruptions would keep fuel imports higher-than-expected, worsening FX pressures and inflation, which would dampen Nigeria’s growth outlook.”
Beyond the oil and refining sectors, BMI flags Nigeria’s deteriorating security environment as a mounting threat to overall growth. The country experienced a sharp rise in kidnapping incidents in 2025, which places additional strain on an already fragile security landscape.
The analysts suggest that further deterioration would likely disrupt both agricultural production and oil output, two of the nation’s most critical growth drivers. Increased insecurity would also deter investment and compel the government to allocate more resources to security operations, leaving fewer funds available for infrastructure, social programmes, and development initiatives.
On the external front, BMI warns that geopolitical tensions could amplify economic risks. Should relations between Nigeria and the United States worsen in 2026—particularly in the wake of allegations by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding unsubstantiated claims of Christian persecution—Washington could consider punitive economic measures such as higher tariffs or even sanctions.
BMI observes that such actions would threaten Nigeria’s oil exports, restrict access to U.S. financing and markets, and undermine investor confidence.
In its latest report, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited stated that crude oil production experienced a slight dip, falling to 1.58 million barrels of oil per day in October from 1.61 mmbopd in September.
However, the report also indicated a strong rise in gas production, which hit 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) in October, up from 6,284 mmscf/d in September. Gas sales, reported on an M-2 basis, also climbed to 4,713 mmscf/d, marking a significant increase from 3,443 mmscf/d recorded in the previous month.
