The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has reported that Nigeria’s oil production, excluding condensate, experienced a 0.7 per cent drop, falling to 1.486 million barrels per day in November 2025 from the 1.496 million bpd produced in October 2025.
OPEC does not count condensate in its figures, a resource of which Nigeria produces approximately 196,028 bpd, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
OPEC disclosed this data in its December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining that the production figures for November were based on data obtained from secondary sources, thereby indicating that Nigeria failed to meet OPEC’s 1.5 million bpd quota.
When data obtained from direct sources were analyzed, OPEC disclosed that Nigeria produced 1.436 million bpd in November 2025, which was an increase from the 1.401 million bpd recorded in October 2025.
The current production figure of 1.486 million bpd shows a marginal increase when compared to the 1.417 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
Reacting to the report in an interview with Vanguard on Thursday, Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, offered his perspective: “That Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) for November 2025 at 1.486 mbpd—just slightly below October’s 1.496 mbpd and still short of the 1.5 mbpd target is not too surprising.”
Professor Iledare then listed the persistent factors contributing to the underperformance. “The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.”
He called for decisive action and clarity within the sector’s leadership. “The selective implementation of the PIA must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”
Meanwhile, the NUPRC has publicly announced its own ambitious production goal for the near future, setting a target of more than 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in the coming years.
Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, Commission Chief Executive of NUPRC, highlighted significant progress achieved by the Commission since its establishment in 2021, specifically noting that Nigeria’s active rig count, which stood at 16 as of 2021, has now increased to 40 under the Commission’s oversight.
