Nigeria’s exports to African countries have fallen for two straight quarters, dropping by ₦631.52 billion from a high of ₦2.49 trillion in Q3 2024 to ₦1.85 trillion in Q1 2025.

The most recent dip represents a 9.19% decrease from ₦2.04 trillion in Q4 2024, which itself marked a 17.86% fall from the Q3 peak.

Despite the downturn, stakeholders remain hopeful that expanding non-oil trade will help revive export growth and strengthen Nigeria’s position in intra-African commerce.

Foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Nigeria exported goods worth ₦1.85 trillion to African countries in Q1 2025, making up only 9% of the total export value of ₦20.59 trillion for the quarter.

This marks a continued decline in Africa’s share of Nigeria’s total exports. In 2024, the share stood at 11.67% in Q1, 12.13% in both Q2 and Q3, and 10.20% in Q4.

Stakeholders have attributed the decline in Nigeria’s exports to African countries to falling oil exports, citing reduced production and fluctuating global prices. However, they remain optimistic that growth in non-oil trade could strengthen the country’s intra-African trade performance.

In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose by 11.45% to ₦3.17 trillion, up from ₦2.84 trillion in Q4 2024, accounting for 15.38% of total exports. In contrast, crude oil exports stood at ₦12.96 trillion, reflecting a 6.01% drop quarter-on-quarter and a 16.35% decline year-on-year.

Despite the rise in non-oil exports, oil products—both crude and non-crude—remain Nigeria’s dominant export, with total export earnings reaching ₦20.59 trillion in Q1 2025.

This underscores the country’s continued heavy reliance on oil trade, even as stakeholders push for diversification through non-oil sectors.

Commenting, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, noted that Nigeria has strategically positioned itself to benefit from exports following the unification of the exchange rate, which led to a weaker naira.

He linked the growth in non-oil exports to this reform and added that the decline in oil exports was expected, given prevailing production and pricing challenges.

He explained, “Non-oil exports should be growing steadily for two reasons; one is our internal focus on promoting the export of processed goods, which is adding value to exports. The various efforts by individuals and companies have seen a steady growth in non-oil exports. But for oil exports, we expect the exports to go down because we are consuming a lot of it in our refineries.”

Idahosa stated that there “should be no real surprise” over the drop in crude oil exports, noting that operational refineries like Dangote are absorbing a significant portion of Nigeria’s crude under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

According to him, the real surprise would be if non-oil exports weren’t growing, given the favorable conditions created by the exchange rate unification and rising domestic crude demand.