Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has said Nigeria’s persistent economic struggles are driven less by a shortage of talent or ideas and more by how the country allocates its human capital.

El-Rufai made the remarks in a statement shared on his Facebook page on Wednesday, where he argued that Nigeria’s best minds are often drawn away from productive sectors into activities that offer quicker and higher returns.

According to him, “Nigeria’s growth problem is not primarily a shortage of talent, capital, or ideas. It is a problem of where our best talent goes—and why.” He added that individuals respond to incentives, noting that the current system tends to reward rent-seeking more than productive enterprise. “People do not wake up intending to harm their country. They respond rationally to incentives,” he said.

The former governor cited economic indicators to illustrate Nigeria’s structural challenges, including a 4.1 per cent GDP growth rate in 2024, a GDP per capita of about $1,084, an informal employment rate of roughly 93 per cent, and a tax-to-GDP ratio of 8.2 per cent. “These numbers are not abstract,” he said. “They describe an economy where scale is risky, visibility attracts predation, and long-term investment struggles to compete with short-term access.”

El-Rufai further warned that when skilled professionals are diverted from productive sectors, it weakens entrepreneurship, slows innovation, and limits long-term economic growth. He also pointed to systemic bottlenecks such as unreliable electricity, port delays, and limited formal wage employment as constraints on business expansion.

Despite the challenges, he noted growth potential in non-oil exports such as cocoa, cashew, fertiliser, and processed agricultural products, saying this shows Nigerian firms can compete when incentives are aligned. Outlining reforms he believes are necessary, El-Rufai called for reduced discretionary government powers, predictable and digitised regulations, stronger property rights, and policies that support business scaling.

He concluded that Nigeria’s progress depends on economic structure rather than political rhetoric, saying: “Nigeria’s future does not hinge on slogans or personalities. It hinges on who wins in our economy. If the system rewards producers over extractors, growth will follow—rapidly and durably.”