Nigeria’s total public debt may surge to N160.6 trillion by the end of 2025, raising fresh concerns over the country’s fiscal sustainability, according to a new report by CSL Stockbrokers Limited.

In its 2025 second-half economic outlook, the financial services firm—a subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc—projects that the Federal Government may be forced to borrow at least N9.3 trillion in the latter half of the year to plug its widening budget deficit.

If realised, this would bring Nigeria’s total public debt to about 50.2% of the pre-rebased Gross Domestic Product, highlighting the country’s deepening reliance on debt to finance public spending.

“We expect the government to ramp up its borrowing efforts in the second half of the year to bridge the widening fiscal gap,” CSL said in the report. “We believe the government could come to the market to raise around N9.3tn or more, which could see the total public debt rise to at least N160.6tn by year-end.”

The report also described the Federal Government’s fiscal outlook as fragile, citing shortfalls in oil revenue and delays in implementing key tax reforms.

Although the 2025 national budget set a deficit target of 3.9% of GDP, CSL forecasts the gap could widen to 5.8%, driven by underperformance in both oil and non-oil revenue sources.

Between January and May 2025, Nigeria’s oil production averaged just 1.67 million barrels per day—well below the government’s target of 2.06 million bpd—further compounding revenue challenges.