Nigeria’s crude oil production has once again fallen below its OPEC quota.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, output dropped to about 1.47 million barrels per day in February, down from 1.54 million bpd in January.

Nigeria’s oil production fell below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd in February, losing an average of 70,000 barrels daily—about 2.1 million litres in a month.

This decline follows a strong January performance, where production exceeded the quota by over 30,000 barrels, earning praise for efforts toward the 2.06 mbpd target.

However, this progress was short-lived, as NUPRC data shows a loss of about 70,000 barrels per day between January and February.

Total oil production (crude and condensate) also declined from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February.

The NUPRC remarked, “Lowest and peak production in February were 1.60 million bopd and 1.76 million bopd respectively. The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensate (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”

Nigeria consistently fell short of its OPEC crude oil production quota throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024.

However, production rebounded in early 2025, rising from 1.4 mbpd in December to 1.5 mbpd in January.

Persistent challenges like crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have been key obstacles to meeting OPEC targets over the years.

Despite past shortfalls, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, remains confident that Nigeria can reach 3 mbpd in 2025.

He emphasized a strategy aligned with the U.S. slogan “Drill, baby drill,” stating that the target includes both crude and condensates and will be achieved without conflicts with OPEC.