Nigeria’s external sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, as the country’s overall Balance of Payments surplus plummeted by 38.1 per cent to $4.23 billion, down from the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.

Provisional data from the Central Bank of Nigeria reveals a complex economic landscape where a sharp decline in crude oil earnings and a massive retreat in foreign portfolio investments outweighed the gains made in gas exports and the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.

The Current Account, which represents the net of the country’s trade in goods and services, remained in surplus but saw a significant contraction.

The surplus fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025, compared to $19.03 billion in the previous year.

A major driver of this decline was the 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024.

This shortfall in oil revenue occurred despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports, which climbed to $10.51 billion.

Furthermore, the Goods Account, a subset of the current account, recorded a higher surplus of $14.51 billion.

This was bolstered by the Dangote Refinery, which contributed $6.13 billion in refined petroleum exports and helped slash fuel imports by 28.9 per cent, from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion.

The Financial Account underwent a dramatic shift, moving from a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024 to a net borrowing position of $1.69 billion in 2025.

This reversal was largely fueled by a 48.3 per cent crash in Foreign Portfolio Investment inflows, which dropped to $8.04 billion from $15.55 billion.

Conversely, Foreign Direct Investment inflows saw a robust increase of 149.1 per cent, rising to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion in 2024, indicating long-term investors showed renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.

The pressure on the BOP was further compounded by rising out-payments in the services and primary income accounts.

The deficit in the services account grew to $14.58 billion, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.

More strikingly, net out-payments in the primary income account surged by 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion.

The CBN attributed this to a spike in dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors, particularly those with portfolio and direct investments in the country.

Despite the narrowing BOP surplus, Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a healthy accretion of 13.8 per cent, ending the year at $45.75 billion.

This growth in reserves provides a critical buffer for the economy as it navigates the structural shifts in its trade and investment balances.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s current account surplus fell year-on-year, by 26 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025 from $19.03 billion in 2024.

The decline was as a result of decrease in crude oil exports, crude oil imports by Dangote Refinery, increase in Non-oil imports and increase in net out-payment for services.

The BoP report stated: “Provisional, BOP, statistics for 2025 shows a current account surplus of $14.04 billion, which was lower than the $19.03 billion in the previous year but significantly higher than the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023.

“Major contributors to the decline in Current Account are the decrease in crude oil exports from $36.85 billion to $31.54 billion (14.41 per cent), crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery, increase in Non-oil imports from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion (13.6 per cent) and increase in net out-payment for services from $13.36 billion to $14.58 billion (9.13 per cent).”