Nigeria is projected to face a worsening food security crisis in 2026, with as many as 34.7 million people at risk of acute food insecurity.
The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.”
The report warned that without urgent and coordinated policy interventions, existing challenges would continue to weaken food production, distribution and access across the country.
PwC attributed the anticipated rise in food insecurity largely to persistent insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria, where ongoing conflict has displaced thousands of farmers and disrupted critical agricultural activities such as planting and harvesting.
“Conflict, high input costs, and climate shocks are expected to push 34.7 million Nigerians into acute food insecurity in 2026,” PwC said in the report.
According to the outlook, between January and October 2025, about 34,000 people were displaced across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, a development that significantly reduced the availability of agricultural labour.
The report also highlighted rising agricultural input costs as a major constraint to food production nationwide.
It noted that the national average price of NPK fertiliser increased by 19.5 per cent in 2025, reaching about N52,000 per 50kg bag.
“Production costs increased sharply, with maize and soybean production costs up 29.2% and 36.8%,” the report stated.
“Limited access to finance reduced input usage: only 62% of farmers used agricultural inputs in 2025, down from 81% in 2024, leading to a 24% drop in input application and an 8% contraction in cultivated land,” PwC added.
The report further observed that erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged dry spells experienced in 2025 resulted in below-average agricultural output in several regions of the country.
PwC warned that these climate-related shocks had already reduced food availability and were likely to worsen food insecurity in 2026.
The projections align with earlier warnings from farmers and international organisations, highlighting the magnitude of the looming crisis.
Nairametrics had previously reported that farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions warned of abandoning farming due to rising production costs, worsening insecurity and massive post-harvest losses.
Similarly, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization projected that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June to August 2026 lean season.
The FAO projection was based on its October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
Nigeria has continued to grapple with rising food inflation driven by insecurity, currency pressures, and escalating energy and agricultural input costs.
High fertiliser prices and limited access to agricultural finance have significantly reduced input usage among smallholder farmers across the country.
The FAO and other development partners have repeatedly called for urgent interventions to improve security, strengthen climate resilience and stabilise food supply chains.
PwC stressed that tackling insecurity, lowering input costs, expanding access to agricultural finance and strengthening climate adaptation measures would be crucial to preventing the projected food insecurity from escalating into a full-scale humanitarian crisis in 2026.
