Nigeria’s oil exploration declined by 45 per cent month-on-month in February 2026, driven by reduced upstream activities.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the nation’s rig count, a key indicator of upstream oil and gas activity, fell to 22 in February 2026, down from 40 recorded in January 2026.

Although the Commission did not provide official reasons for the sharp decline, industry sources attributed it to a slowdown in exploration activities during the period. Further analysis indicated that the number of standby rigs rose significantly to 25 in February 2026 from 11 in January 2026, while the total rig count remained unchanged at 72.

Reacting to the development, a Port Harcourt-based energy analyst, Bala Zakka, said: “I am aware that many contracts are currently being discussed. This means that upstream activities, including oil and gas drilling that would require rig deployment, will likely increase in the second quarter once these contracts are concluded.” Also speaking, the National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, Colman Obasi, emphasised the need to scale up upstream investments to boost exploration and reserves growth. “We need to invest more resources upstream to deploy more rigs, make additional oil and gas discoveries, and grow Nigeria’s reserves,” he said.

Meanwhile, the NUPRC has pledged to intensify exploration and other upstream activities across the country. The Commission Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated that the era of companies holding prospecting licences without development is over. According to her, a key provision of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) Section 94 compels operators to either commence work on allocated assets or relinquish them, a policy widely known as “drill or drop.” She noted that enforcement of this provision has attracted more serious investors to the ongoing 2025 licensing round, which is expected to boost Nigeria’s petroleum reserves.

“The PIA has created opportunities for both small and large players through the ‘drill or drop’ provision, thereby reducing uncertainties in the sector,” Eyesan said. “In the past, some operators held licences for up to 20 years without development. That era is over. We now have more assets available, giving us the impetus to pursue if possible — annual bid rounds.” She also expressed satisfaction with investor interest in the 2025 licensing round. “For the 2025 licensing round, we have 50 oil blocks on offer. The outcome of the pre-qualification stage demonstrates strong investor appetite,” she added.