Investor interest in MTN Nigeria reached new heights in April, driven by rising optimism that the country’s largest telecom operator is on track to return to profitability in the first quarter of 2025.

This renewed confidence follows a 50% tariff hike, which analysts say is likely to boost the company’s margins and be reflected in upcoming earnings.

On April 15, MTN Nigeria recorded its highest single-day trading volume ever on the Nigerian Exchange, with over 11 million shares changing hands. The company is set to release its Q1 2025 financial results on April 29, just ahead of its annual general meeting. A return to profit would mark the telco’s first positive Q1 since the naira’s sharp devaluation in 2023.

MTN Nigeria, which holds more than 50% of the country’s telecom market, plays a critical role in expanding digital access across Nigeria. The company’s share price, which rose to ₦245 in April, reflects growing investor confidence in its turnaround strategy. The telco recently rebranded its home broadband service to FibreX, a move aimed at boosting its presence in the high-demand residential internet market.

“Investors are also anticipating the second public share offering MTN Nigeria announced earlier this month,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim, head of research at Chapel Hill Denham. “Despite recovering in Q4, the shares are still seen as undervalued.”

MTN Group plans to reduce its ownership in MTN Nigeria from 76% to 65%, with the timing of the public offer tied to the company’s return to consistent profitability and dividend payouts.

Currently valued at ₦5.1 trillion, MTN Nigeria is the fourth most capitalised company on the Nigerian Exchange and was one of the most actively traded stocks in the week of April 24. By contrast, Airtel Africa, the most capitalised company and MTN’s main rival, saw minimal trading activity despite also implementing a 50% tariff hike.

Between January 17 and April 17, Airtel Africa recorded just 336,734 shares traded across 331 deals, compared to MTN’s multi-million volume. Analysts attribute this to Airtel Africa’s low market liquidity, compounded by its ongoing $100 million share buyback program, which reduces the number of shares available for public trading.

“Unlike MTN, Airtel Africa is an illiquid stock,” said Benedict Egwuchukwu of Afrinvest. “The scarcity of shares makes it harder for investors to buy or sell without moving the price significantly.”

Despite MTN’s spike in activity, it still ranked 44th by trading volume on the NGX, far behind Fidelity Bank, which recorded over 388 million shares traded in a single day. However, the uptick signals a positive shift as the telecom giant works to overcome two years of steep losses.

In 2024, MTN Nigeria reported a ₦400.44 billion loss after tax, driven by ₦925 billion in foreign exchange losses, despite a 36% rise in revenue to ₦3.36 trillion. The company rebounded in the final quarter with a ₦114.5 billion profit, fueling hopes of sustained recovery.