The competition in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector has intensified as major marketers lower their prices below the N825 per litre gantry loading cost set by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
This comes as the landing cost of imported petrol drops to N774.72 per litre.
Marketers predict that the ongoing drop in prices could bring petrol pump prices down to around N800 per litre.
Dealers highlight that the N774.72 per litre landing cost—which includes shipping, import duties, and exchange rate impacts—is N50.28 lower than the N825 per litre price set at Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s loading gantry.
Industry stakeholders say the situation has triggered a price war, as retail marketers are now shifting from refinery products to imported petrol due to lower costs.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chief Ukadike Chinedu, stated “Crude oil is a major component in the production of fuel, so a further reduction in its price would definitely warrant a drop in petrol price, and it is possible to drop to N800 per litre.”
Last Monday, NNPC reduced its retail petrol price from N945 to N860 per litre in Lagos and from N965 to N880 per litre in Abuja.
NNPC’s petrol price cut came after Dangote Refinery reduced its retail fuel price to N860 and N880 per litre across its retail partners.
This marked Dangote’s second price reduction in 2024 and the third in two months, as it lowered its ex-depot petrol price from N890 to N825 per litre, bringing relief to Nigerians.
According to the latest Competency Centre Daily Energy Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, the on-spot estimated import parity into tanks has dropped to N774.82 per litre—a N152.56 (16.5%) reduction from the N927.48 per litre recorded on February 21, 2025.
The 30-day average cost also declined to N864.92 per litre, while on-the-spot sales at the NPSC terminal stood at N927.53 per litre.
Further investigation shows that private depots have lowered their prices below what marketers pay at the Dangote Refinery..
An analysis of depot prices reveals: AA RANO depot has reduced its loading cost to N830 per litre, MENJ Depot now sells at N830, MRS TINCAN sold its products at N830, WOSBAB gave its customers a price estimate of N832, AITEO gave a price of N832 and RAINOIL depot sold its products at N831 per litre.
Commenting on the development, oil and gas expert, Olatide Jeremiah, predicts that the Dangote Refinery may be forced to lower its ex-gantry price further to remain competitive.
As the CEO of petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah highlighted that marketers are increasingly turning to private depots for greater price stability, especially as Dangote Refinery has already reduced prices twice this year.
He stated, “Last week, prices particularly for petrol and diesel started dropping, and on Thursday, it went below Dangote’s ex-depot price. The refinery price is N825 per litre and marketers will pay N9 for NMDPRA fees and other levies making a total of N834 per liter.
“Even as I speak, marketers that bought from Dangote and still have old stock are seeking at zero profit. So most of the marketers stopped buying. Many depots also started selling N830, even MRS, that get products from Dangote, while marketers at the Dangote refinery sold between N835 or N834 today to finish their stock.
“Other private depots are selling at N830 or N831 per liter. The reason is that private depots got a cheaper product even less than Dangote coastal price of N780. But the landing cost is less than that amount. Another scenario is the MRS and Ardova got their product at the coastal price which will enable them to sell at N834.
“The expense to the truck from Dangote refinery is between N40 to N45, so it is not a good deal. I can tell you at the Dangote depot today, the place was deserted, marketers trading there have now switched to private depots. This is likely to force Dangote to reduce its price.
“Rumours are already spreading because private depots are now making good sales. The back and forth of prices has made marketers uncomfortable. They are counting their loss and that is why they now patronise private depots where there is a bit of stability.”
