The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, Olu Verheijen, issued a stark warning to African nations at the 2025 Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan on on Wednesday, emphasizing that capital for oil sector projects will flow to regions offering the most competitive returns.
Speaking to policymakers, investors, and industry leaders, Verheijen underscored the need for African countries to create attractive investment climates to secure funding.
She said capital is not African or foreign—it is rational, according to a statement by Senan Murray, Communications Lead for the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy.
She said, “Let’s be clear: capital has no passport. Sentimental appeals to ‘African capital’ are a distraction. Capital is opportunistic, not patriotic. It flows where risk-adjusted returns are competitive.”
The presidential adviser stated that multi-billion-dollar deepwater and LNG projects attract global investment, emphasizing that Africa must engage through smart, strategic partnerships—not from a place of dependency, but through shared and aligned interests.
Verheijen noted that Africa attracted $340 billion in upstream oil and gas investment between 2011 and 2015, but this figure is projected to fall sharply to less than $130 billion between 2026 and 2030.
She said, “That’s not a funding winter. That’s a structural decimation.”
According to Verheijen, capital is increasingly flowing to projects that demonstrate strong economic returns, low carbon intensity, and predictable governance. These factors are key drivers behind the billions of dollars being invested in regions like the Permian Basin, Guyana, and Brazil.
Verheijen emphasized that for Africa to capture a greater share of the $500 billion in annual global upstream spending, it must match global competitors in clarity, competitiveness, and consistency.
She pointed to Nigeria as a proof of concept: in less than a year, the country unlocked over $8 billion in deepwater and gas Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) by: Implementing decisive presidential interventions; Offering improved fiscal terms; Streamlining contracting timelines; Providing clearer local content regulations; and Advancing power sector reforms to boost gas-to-power viability
This, she argued, shows that the right policy moves can quickly restore investor confidence.
She said, “We moved from gridlock to greenlight, and investors responded.”
Verheijen urged African investors—DFIs, banks, pension funds, and sovereigns—to be strategic in focus, and to strive to fill the vacuum left by IOCs, not just with funding, but with fit-for-purpose instruments and risk-sharing structures.
She said, “Our sweet spot is onshore, shelf, and domestic gas. That’s where African players must dominate, because we understand the terrain, the risk, and the reward.”
