Analysts expect the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee to continue its recently adopted dovish posture when it concludes its two-day meeting today (Tuesday, 25 November 2025), with most forecasts pointing to an interest-rate cut of 25–100 basis points.

The committee broke a long hawkish spell in September 2025 by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 27.00 per cent — the first cut in several years.

At that meeting, the MPC also: Widened the Standing Facilities corridor to +250/–250 basis points around the MPR; Raised the Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks to 45 per cent (merchant banks unchanged at 16 per cent); Imposed a 75 per cent CRR on non-Treasury Single Account public-sector deposits
Left the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent

The shift away from the tight policy pursued under Governor Olayemi Cardoso since late 2023 has been driven by clear signs that inflation is finally retreating.

Headline inflation slowed to 16.05 per cent year-on-year in October 2025 — the lowest reading since March 2022.

Commenting on the outlook, the Manager, Market Analyst, FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, projected a rate cut due to moderating inflation.

Otunuga, in his global weekly economic review, stated, “In Nigeria, the CBN could cut rates by as much as 100 basis points on Tuesday as inflationary pressures cool. Annual inflation fell to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, its softest level since March 2022. Persistent signs of easing price pressures have provided much breathing room for the CBN to cut rates in an effort to stimulate growth.

“Speaking of growth, Nigeria’s Q3 GDP will be published on 28 November. More signs of recovering growth may boost sentiment and encourage the CBN to pursue its expansionary monetary policy.”

Afrinvest Research similarly pointed to the improving inflation trajectory and a more supportive macroeconomic environment, reinforcing expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria has ample room to deliver a significant rate cut at Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

“Looking ahead, we expect the disinflation trend to persist through November,” the firm said. “We forecast headline inflation to rise mildly to 1.1 per cent m/m in November, while the favourable base effect should drive annual inflation lower to 15.8 per cent.”

Afrinvest added, “We expect the positive inflation dynamics, relative FX stability, and firm GDP growth expectation (Afrinvest projection for Q3: 3.8–4.3 per cent y/y) to support a dovish call at the MPC meeting scheduled for 24–25 November. Specifically, we anticipate a modest 25–50bps rate cut, which should sustain the bond rally but with limited effect on equities.”

Cowry Asset Management adopted an even more dovish stance.

“The Monetary Policy Committee meets next week at a pivotal moment, as steadily easing inflation since September has strengthened market expectations that another round of monetary easing is imminent,” the firm said.

Cowry Assets further started, “Investors and businesses alike anticipate that the MPC may deliver an additional 100 to 200 basis-point cut to the Monetary Policy Rate, extending its dovish stance in a bid to stimulate economic activity.”

Nevertheless, Cowry Asset cautioned that structural vulnerabilities remain entrenched.

“Beneath this improving inflation outlook, the real economy continues to struggle with elevated operating costs, fragile consumer demand, and multiple structural pressures that have kept growth momentum muted,” it added.

Cordros Capital also pointed to room for deeper easing.

“Recent developments suggest scope for a slightly deeper round of easing than the 50 bps cut delivered in September,” analysts said.

“Given a more favourable macroeconomic backdrop, we expect the MPC to adopt a firmer easing bias and lower the Monetary Policy Rate by 100 bps to 26.00 per cent, while keeping other parameters constant.”

The investment firm added, “Given these improvements, we believe the MPC is now in a stronger position to extend the easing cycle and could opt for a 100-bps cut in the MPR to support growth while still keeping its inflation goals in focus. This would bring the MPR to 26.00 per cent by year-end. On the other hand, we expect all other policy parameters to be retained, reflecting the Committee’s preference for a measured and orderly recalibration of monetary conditions.”