The International Monetary Fund has revised upward Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, from an earlier estimate of 4.2 per cent.
The updated forecast was contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, released on Monday.
According to the Fund, the improved outlook reflects rising confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term growth prospects, driven by ongoing reforms, stronger fiscal coordination, and improving macroeconomic stability, alongside signs of a broader regional recovery.
The IMF’s latest projections indicate a modest but notable improvement in Nigeria’s medium-term growth outlook compared with its previous assessment.
The Fund now expects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.4 per cent in 2026, up from the 4.2 per cent forecast released in October 2025.
The IMF left its near-term outlook largely unchanged, suggesting that the upward revision is mainly driven by more positive expectations beyond the immediate horizon.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth projections were also revised slightly higher, rising from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025 and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, pointing to a broadly shared regional recovery.
South Africa’s growth outlook also edged higher, with projections increasing to 1.3 per cent for 2025 and 1.4 per cent for 2026, compared with earlier estimates.
Overall, the figures suggest that Nigeria’s upgraded outlook aligns with a pattern of gradual but broad-based economic strengthening across the region, rather than representing an isolated revision.
Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a phase of significant economic adjustment shaped by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic stability.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had placed Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, reflecting ongoing concerns over inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural bottlenecks.
Since then, authorities have pressed ahead with reforms focused on improving fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment, and boosting productivity across key sectors.
