The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s inflation rate to average 26.5% in 2025, following the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics.
While this marks a decline from 33.2% in 2024, inflation is expected to rise again to 37.0% in 2026.
This forecast is outlined in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, which presents a cautious view of Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook amidst reform-driven adjustments and external volatility.
Although inflation is expected to temporarily slow, the IMF cautions that achieving price stability remains a significant challenge.
While inflation is expected to moderate in the short term, Nigeria’s external position faces pressure. The IMF forecasts the current account surplus will shrink from 9.1% of GDP in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, and further to 5.2% in 2026.
According to CBN data, Nigeria posted a Balance of Payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, the first in three years. This was driven by a $17.22 billion surplus in the current and capital accounts, bolstered by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion.
However, the sustainability of this surplus remains uncertain.
JP Morgan has cautioned that prolonged oil prices below Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven of $60 per barrel could lead to a current account deficit.
On the other hand, Fitch Ratings expects a moderate surplus, averaging 3.3% of GDP over 2025–2026, driven by refinery projects and energy reforms.
The IMF also revised Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast downward to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, from 3.4% in 2024. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts were revised lower by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, due to lower expected oil receipts.
Nigeria’s real per capita output is projected to increase by only 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026, reflecting minimal improvements in individual income levels despite overall economic growth. This growth rate lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa average, highlighting persistent inequality and weak household purchasing power.
In January 2025, the NBS revised the CPI base year from 2009 to 2024 to align with more recent household spending patterns.
As a result, the inflation rate was adjusted, easing to 24.48% in January from 34.80% in December 2024.
Inflation continued to moderate in February, falling to 23.18%, but edged up to 24.23% in March, highlighting persistent cost-of-living pressures.
