IMF lowers 2024 growth projections for Nigeria

Alex Omenye
Alex Omenye

The International Monetary Fund reduced its October prediction of 3.1% for Nigeria’s GDP growth in 2024 to 3.0, which is a 0.1% reduction.

The IMF made this known in its updated World Economic Outlook for 2024 and 2025.

The analysis predicts that Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP will expand by 3.8% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025, down from the 4.0% growth in 2024 that was first predicted in October.

“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.3% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside, and supply issues gradually improve. The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2% point from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation sector, on economic activity.” IMF stated.

Additionally, the IMF reduced South Africa’s chances of economic growth by 0.8% from the 1.8% initial estimate made in October 2023. It stated that this year’s economic development will be hindered by growing difficulties in the country’s transportation sector.

The IMF outlined a number of negative risks, such as the possibility of commodities price rises brought on by geopolitical shocks and interruptions in global supply.

Events such as Houthi strikes in the Red Sea or a worsening of crises in the Middle East might be the cause of these interruptions.

The IMF also highlighted the possibility of ongoing inflation, which would force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer periods of time.

The IMF underlined how concerned it was about the potential division of world commerce into rival blocs. The predicted growth in global commerce for 2024 and 2025 was 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively, less than the historical average of 4.9%.

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