The International Monetary Fund Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, stated in a statement on Friday that the IMF does not release exchange rate projections.
According to Nairametrics, this announcement followed a flurry of headlines in the Nigerian press that cited the IMF for exact exchange rate estimates between the US dollar and the naira until 2024.
Ebeke emphasized that “the IMF report, which was written towards the end of 2023 and was just recently made public, is where the misreporting started.”
This paper gave a hypothetical negative case analysis instead of forecasting exchange rates. The purpose of this experiment was to stress test important macroeconomic factors against adverse external shocks.
The new post-financing assessment study on Nigeria from the IMF provides a sobering assessment, predicting a potentially severe economic downturn in the event that crucial policy changes are not implemented.
According to the research, if the Central Bank of Nigeria does not enact major monetary tightening measures, the rate of inflation would soar and might even reach 44%.
This dismal forecast is based on a scenario in which there are greater pressures on the naira, particularly given the imminent prospect of an early 2024 climatic shock.
The IMF report’s in-depth analysis paints a gloomy picture of Nigeria’s economic prospects and emphasizes the urgent need for strong policy initiatives.
It describes how a number of variables, like as a poor response to monetary policy, ongoing pressure on the naira, and unfavourable weather patterns, might upset the country’s economic equilibrium. Especially.
