Nigeria’s inflation outlook received a boost in credibility after the International Monetary Fund endorsed newly revised consumer price data that indicate a significant easing of price pressures.

The endorsement follows a comprehensive methodological overhaul of inflation measurement by the National Bureau of Statistics, designed to align Nigeria’s data with international standards.

The IMF said the December 2025 inflation figures released by the NBS suggest a sustained moderation in prices, a development that could help reduce cost-of-living pressures and strengthen macroeconomic stability in Africa’s most populous country.

In a statement issued on Thursday night by its Nigeria Resident Representative, Christian Ebeke, the Fund welcomed the latest data and highlighted their potential impact on households and the wider economy.

“We welcome the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability,” the IMF said.

According to data published by the NBS under the new methodology, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 15.15 per cent in December, down from 17.33 per cent in November and significantly lower than the 34.80 per cent recorded in the same month a year earlier.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation eased to 0.54 per cent from 1.22 per cent in November, signalling a deceleration in short-term price increases as pressures from food and core inflation softened.

The easing in inflation coincides with a major revision of Nigeria’s inflation measurement framework. The NBS recently rebased and reweighted its Consumer Price Index, adopting 2024 as the new base year and linking the old index to the revised series.

The IMF said the rebasing exercise brings Nigeria’s inflation measurement into line with global best practices outlined in the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonised Consumer Price Index framework.

Under the revised framework, inflation is now calculated using a 12-month average reference period instead of a single-month base. The change is intended to enhance the stability of the data and improve comparability over time.

As a result of the methodological adjustment, some previously published inflation figures were revised upward. Notably, the November inflation rate was revised to 17.33 per cent from an earlier estimate of 14.45 per cent.

The NBS explained that reliance on a single-month base would have distorted the inflation data under the new system.

“The Consumer Price Index rose to 131.2 in December 2025, up by 0.7 points from the previous month,” the bureau said, adding that the slower increase reflected easing price momentum.

Officials at the statistics office maintained that the revisions do not change the broader disinflation trend observed throughout 2025.

The IMF also noted that although the methodological shift altered reported inflation levels, the data still show inflation declining steadily over the course of the year, reinforcing confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction and overall macroeconomic conditions.

Nigeria’s Statistician-General and head of the NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, said the rebasing exercise reflects changes in consumption patterns and the structure of the economy after several years marked by high inflation and currency volatility.

“The CPI report is centred on a new CPI base year of 2024 and a weight reference period of 2023,” he said, adding that the adoption of a 12-month reference period helps prevent artificial inflation spikes caused by base effects rather than genuine price movements.

Despite the improvement in headline figures, inflation challenges persist. The 12-month average inflation rate remains elevated, highlighting the continued strain on households after prolonged increases in food and energy prices.

Nevertheless, the IMF’s endorsement of both the easing inflation trend and the revised methodology is expected to boost investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic data and provide policymakers with a stronger statistical foundation as they pursue tighter coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to secure lasting price stability.