Guinness Nigeria Plc is expected to resume dividend payments next year after the beer maker halted payments in 2023.

This projection signals a significant recovery for a company that suffered severely from macroeconomic headwinds, which had pushed its retained earnings into negative territory.

Analysts at the Lagos-based consultancy CardinalStone indicated the expected resumption in a note published on Tuesday. “With earnings recovering and the operating environment stabilising, we expect retained earnings to return to positive territory in the full year, reinstating the company’s capacity to resume dividend payments,” the analysts stated.

Regarding the potential payment, the analysts offered a cautious estimate. “While management has not provided formal guidance, our base case assumes a 50.0 percent payout ratio (vs the 5-year average of 62.8%), reflecting a more cautious posture as the company continues to rebuild its balance sheet.” Retained earnings is projected to close 2026 at N33.9 billion, which would support an estimated dividend per share of N8.7 for the year, according to the analysts.

Guinness had previously endured the steep devaluation of the naira and the sky-high inflation that followed the market reforms of the federal government in 2023. This policy shift saw the company record huge losses in the past two years due to the company’s exposure to foreign exchange. However, the brewer rebounded strongly in the 15 months to September 2025, posting a net income of N26.28 billion, improving profitability metrics as net margin rose to 4.42 percent, Return on Asset strengthened to 10.69 percent, and Return on Equity expanded significantly to 924.02 percent.

Guinness reported a total revenue of N594.68 billion in its 15-month 2025 financial period. This revenue was driven by growth in both domestic and export sales, which increased to N585.65 billion and N9.02 billion, respectively, compared to N295.9 billion and N3.56 billion in the full year of 2024. For the last quarter of 2025, CardinalStone expects gross, EBIT, and net profit margins to grow to 37.5 percent, 17.6 percent, and 10.5 percent, compared to 33.5 percent, 13.6 percent, and 8.9 percent in the prior period last year.

CardinalStone attributed their optimistic expectations to several factors. “Our expectations are driven by revenue growth buoyed by festive-induced volume growth, expanded market reach, materially lower sorghum prices (-25.9% YoY), and 10.0% appreciation of the Naira.”